Deconstructing Recurrence, Attention, and Gating: Investigating the transferability of Transformers and Gated Recurrent Neural Networks in forecasting of dynamical systems

Machine learning architectures, including transformers and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have revolutionized forecasting in applications ranging from text processing to extreme weather. Notably, advanced network architectures, tuned for applications such as natural language processing, are transferable to other tasks such as spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. However, there is a scarcity of ablation studies to illustrate the key components that enable this forecasting accuracy. The absence of such studies, although explainable due to the associated computational cost, intensifies the belief that these models ought to be considered as black boxes. In this work, we decompose the key architectural components of the most powerful neural architectures, namely gating and recurrence in RNNs, and attention mechanisms in transformers. Then, we synthesize and build novel hybrid architectures from the standard blocks, performing ablation studies to identify which mechanisms are effective for each task. The importance of considering these components as hyper-parameters that can augment the standard architectures is exhibited on various forecasting datasets, from the spatiotemporal chaotic dynamics of the multiscale Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, as well as standard real world time-series benchmarks. A key finding is that neural gating and attention improves the performance of all standard RNNs in most tasks, while the addition of a notion of recurrence in transformers is detrimental. Furthermore, our study reveals that a novel, sparsely used, architecture which integrates Recurrent Highway Networks with neural gating and attention mechanisms, emerges as the best performing architecture in high-dimensional spatiotemporal forecasting of dynamical systems.

Physics-Regularized Multi-Modal Image Assimilation for Brain Tumor Localization

Physical models in the form of partial differential equations represent an important prior for many under-constrained problems. One example is tumor treatment planning, which heavily depends on accurate estimates of the spatial distribution of tumor cells in a patient's anatomy. Medical imaging scans can identify the bulk of the tumor, but they cannot reveal its full spatial distribution. Tumor cells at low concentrations remain undetectable, for example, in the most frequent type of primary brain tumors, glioblastoma. Deep-learning-based approaches fail to estimate the complete tumor cell distribution due to a lack of reliable training data. Most existing works therefore rely on physics-based simulations to match observed tumors, providing anatomically and physiologically plausible estimations. However, these approaches struggle with complex and unknown initial conditions and are limited by overly rigid physical models. In this work, we present a novel method that balances data-driven and physics-based cost functions. In particular, we propose a unique discretization scheme that quantifies the adherence of our learned spatiotemporal tumor and brain tissue distributions to their corresponding growth and elasticity equations. This quantification, serving as a regularization term rather than a hard constraint, enables greater flexibility and proficiency in assimilating patient data than existing models. We demonstrate improved coverage of tumor recurrence areas compared to existing techniques on real-world data from a cohort of patients. The method holds the potential to enhance clinical adoption of model-driven treatment planning for glioblastoma.

Generative Learning of the Solution of Parametric Partial Differential Equations Using Guided Diffusion Models and Virtual Observations

We introduce a generative learning framework to model high-dimensional parametric systems using gradient guidance and virtual observations. We consider systems described by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) discretized with structured or unstructured grids. The framework integrates multi-level information to generate high fidelity time sequences of the system dynamics. We demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of our framework with two case studies in incompressible, two dimensional, low Reynolds cylinder flow on an unstructured mesh and incompressible turbulent channel flow on a structured mesh, both parameterized by the Reynolds number. Our results illustrate the framework's robustness and ability to generate accurate flow sequences across various parameter settings, significantly reducing computational costs allowing for efficient forecasting and reconstruction of flow dynamics.

Path planning of magnetic microswimmers in high-fidelity simulations of capillaries with deep reinforcement learning

Biomedical applications such as targeted drug delivery, microsurgery or sensing rely on reaching precise areas within the body in a minimally invasive way. Artificial bacterial flagella (ABFs) have emerged as potential tools for this task by navigating through the circulatory system. While the control and swimming characteristics of ABFs is understood in simple scenarios, their behavior within the bloodstream remains unclear. We conduct simulations of ABFs evolving in the complex capillary networks found in the human retina. The ABF is robustly guided to a prescribed target by a reinforcement learning agent previously trained on a reduced order model.

Generative Learning for Forecasting the Dynamics of Complex Systems

We introduce generative models for accelerating simulations of complex systems through learning and evolving their effective dynamics. In the proposed Generative Learning of Effective Dynamics (G-LED), instances of high dimensional data are down sampled to a lower dimensional manifold that is evolved through an auto-regressive attention mechanism. In turn, Bayesian diffusion models, that map this low-dimensional manifold onto its corresponding high-dimensional space, capture the statistics of the system dynamics. We demonstrate the capabilities and drawbacks of G-LED in simulations of several benchmark systems, including the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) equation, two-dimensional high Reynolds number flow over a backward-facing step, and simulations of three-dimensional turbulent channel flow. The results demonstrate that generative learning offers new frontiers for the accurate forecasting of the statistical properties of complex systems at a reduced computational cost.

Closure Discovery for Coarse-Grained Partial Differential Equations using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Reliable predictions of critical phenomena, such as weather, wildfires and epidemics are often founded on models described by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). However, simulations that capture the full range of spatio-temporal scales in such PDEs are often prohibitively expensive. Consequently, coarse-grained simulations that employ heuristics and empirical closure terms are frequently utilized as an alternative. We propose a novel and systematic approach for identifying closures in under-resolved PDEs using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). The MARL formulation incorporates inductive bias and exploits locality by deploying a central policy represented efficiently by Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). We demonstrate the capabilities and limitations of MARL through numerical solutions of the advection equation and the Burgers' equation. Our results show accurate predictions for in- and out-of-distribution test cases as well as a significant speedup compared to resolving all scales.

Extreme Event Prediction with Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning-based Parametrization of Atmospheric and Oceanic Turbulence

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Interpretable learning of effective dynamics for multiscale systems

The modeling and simulation of high-dimensional multiscale systems is a critical challenge across all areas of science and engineering. It is broadly believed that even with today's computer advances resolving all spatiotemporal scales described by the governing equations remains a remote target. This realization has prompted intense efforts to develop model order reduction techniques. In recent years, techniques based on deep recurrent neural networks have produced promising results for the modeling and simulation of complex spatiotemporal systems and offer large flexibility in model development as they can incorporate experimental and computational data. However, neural networks lack interpretability, which limits their utility and generalizability across complex systems. Here we propose a novel framework of Interpretable Learning Effective Dynamics (iLED) that offers comparable accuracy to state-of-the-art recurrent neural network-based approaches while providing the added benefit of interpretability. The iLED framework is motivated by Mori-Zwanzig and Koopman operator theory, which justifies the choice of the specific architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in simulations of three benchmark multiscale systems. Our results show that the iLED framework can generate accurate predictions and obtain interpretable dynamics, making it a promising approach for solving high-dimensional multiscale systems.

Discovering Individual Rewards in Collective Behavior through Inverse Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

The discovery of individual objectives in collective behavior of complex dynamical systems such as fish schools and bacteria colonies is a long-standing challenge. Inverse reinforcement learning is a potent approach for addressing this challenge but its applicability to dynamical systems, involving continuous state-action spaces and multiple interacting agents, has been limited. In this study, we tackle this challenge by introducing an off-policy inverse multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm (IMARL). Our approach combines the ReF-ER techniques with guided cost learning. By leveraging demonstrations, our algorithm automatically uncovers the reward function and learns an effective policy for the agents. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate that the proposed policy captures the behavior observed in the provided data, and achieves promising results across problem domains including single agent models in the OpenAI gym and multi-agent models of schooling behavior. The present study shows that the proposed IMARL algorithm is a significant step towards understanding collective dynamics from the perspective of its constituents, and showcases its value as a tool for studying complex physical systems exhibiting collective behaviour.

Adaptive learning of effective dynamics: Adaptive real-time, online modeling for complex systems

Predictive simulations are essential for applications ranging from weather forecasting to material design. The veracity of these simulations hinges on their capacity to capture the effective system dynamics. Massively parallel simulations predict the systems dynamics by resolving all spatiotemporal scales, often at a cost that prevents experimentation. On the other hand, reduced order models are fast but often limited by the linearization of the system dynamics and the adopted heuristic closures. We propose a novel systematic framework that bridges large scale simulations and reduced order models to extract and forecast adaptively the effective dynamics (AdaLED) of multiscale systems. AdaLED employs an autoencoder to identify reduced-order representations of the system dynamics and an ensemble of probabilistic recurrent neural networks (RNNs) as the latent time-stepper. The framework alternates between the computational solver and the surrogate, accelerating learned dynamics while leaving yet-to-be-learned dynamics regimes to the original solver. AdaLED continuously adapts the surrogate to the new dynamics through online training. The transitions between the surrogate and the computational solver are determined by monitoring the prediction accuracy and uncertainty of the surrogate. The effectiveness of AdaLED is demonstrated on three different systems - a Van der Pol oscillator, a 2D reaction-diffusion equation, and a 2D Navier-Stokes flow past a cylinder for varying Reynolds numbers (400 up to 1200), showcasing its ability to learn effective dynamics online, detect unseen dynamics regimes, and provide net speed-ups. To the best of our knowledge, AdaLED is the first framework that couples a surrogate model with a computational solver to achieve online adaptive learning of effective dynamics. It constitutes a potent tool for applications requiring many expensive simulations.