Automating the loop in traffic incident management on highway

Effective traffic incident management is essential for ensuring safety, minimizing congestion, and reducing response times in emergency situations. Traditional highway incident management relies heavily on radio room operators, who must make rapid, informed decisions in high-stakes environments. This paper proposes an innovative solution to support and enhance these decisions by integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) into a decision-support system for traffic incident management. We introduce two approaches: (1) an LLM + Optimization hybrid that leverages both the flexibility of natural language interaction and the robustness of optimization techniques, and (2) a Full LLM approach that autonomously generates decisions using only LLM capabilities. We tested our solutions using historical event data from Autostrade per l'Italia. Experimental results indicate that while both approaches show promise, the LLM + Optimization solution demonstrates superior reliability, making it particularly suited to critical applications where consistency and accuracy are paramount. This research highlights the potential for LLMs to transform highway incident management by enabling accessible, data-driven decision-making support.

Regret Minimization for Piecewise Linear Rewards: Contracts, Auctions, and Beyond

Most microeconomic models of interest involve optimizing a piecewise linear function. These include contract design in hidden-action principal-agent problems, selling an item in posted-price auctions, and bidding in first-price auctions. When the relevant model parameters are unknown and determined by some (unknown) probability distributions, the problem becomes learning how to optimize an unknown and stochastic piecewise linear reward function. Such a problem is usually framed within an online learning framework, where the decision-maker (learner) seeks to minimize the regret of not knowing an optimal decision in hindsight. This paper introduces a general online learning framework that offers a unified approach to tackle regret minimization for piecewise linear rewards, under a suitable monotonicity assumption commonly satisfied by microeconomic models. We design a learning algorithm that attains a regret of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{nT})$, where $n$ is the number of ``pieces'' of the reward function and $T$ is the number of rounds. This result is tight when $n$ is \emph{small} relative to $T$, specifically when $n \leq T^{1/3}$. Our algorithm solves two open problems in the literature on learning in microeconomic settings. First, it shows that the $\widetilde{O}(T^{2/3})$ regret bound obtained by Zhu et al. [Zhu+23] for learning optimal linear contracts in hidden-action principal-agent problems is not tight when the number of agent's actions is small relative to $T$. Second, our algorithm demonstrates that, in the problem of learning to set prices in posted-price auctions, it is possible to attain suitable (and desirable) instance-independent regret bounds, addressing an open problem posed by Cesa-Bianchi et al. [CBCP19].

Optimal Strong Regret and Violation in Constrained MDPs via Policy Optimization

We study online learning in \emph{constrained MDPs} (CMDPs), focusing on the goal of attaining sublinear strong regret and strong cumulative constraint violation. Differently from their standard (weak) counterparts, these metrics do not allow negative terms to compensate positive ones, raising considerable additional challenges. Efroni et al. (2020) were the first to propose an algorithm with sublinear strong regret and strong violation, by exploiting linear programming. Thus, their algorithm is highly inefficient, leaving as an open problem achieving sublinear bounds by means of policy optimization methods, which are much more efficient in practice. Very recently, Muller et al. (2024) have partially addressed this problem by proposing a policy optimization method that allows to attain $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{0.93})$ strong regret/violation. This still leaves open the question of whether optimal bounds are achievable by using an approach of this kind. We answer such a question affirmatively, by providing an efficient policy optimization algorithm with $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ strong regret/violation. Our algorithm implements a primal-dual scheme that employs a state-of-the-art policy optimization approach for adversarial (unconstrained) MDPs as primal algorithm, and a UCB-like update for dual variables.

Best-of-Both-Worlds Policy Optimization for CMDPs with Bandit Feedback

We study online learning in constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) in which rewards and constraints may be either stochastic or adversarial. In such settings, Stradi et al.(2024) proposed the first best-of-both-worlds algorithm able to seamlessly handle stochastic and adversarial constraints, achieving optimal regret and constraint violation bounds in both cases. This algorithm suffers from two major drawbacks. First, it only works under full feedback, which severely limits its applicability in practice. Moreover, it relies on optimizing over the space of occupancy measures, which requires solving convex optimization problems, an highly inefficient task. In this paper, we provide the first best-of-both-worlds algorithm for CMDPs with bandit feedback. Specifically, when the constraints are stochastic, the algorithm achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret and constraint violation, while, when they are adversarial, it attains $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ constraint violation and a tight fraction of the optimal reward. Moreover, our algorithm is based on a policy optimization approach, which is much more efficient than occupancy-measure-based methods.

Bridging Rested and Restless Bandits with Graph-Triggering: Rising and Rotting

Rested and Restless Bandits are two well-known bandit settings that are useful to model real-world sequential decision-making problems in which the expected reward of an arm evolves over time due to the actions we perform or due to the nature. In this work, we propose Graph-Triggered Bandits (GTBs), a unifying framework to generalize and extend rested and restless bandits. In this setting, the evolution of the arms' expected rewards is governed by a graph defined over the arms. An edge connecting a pair of arms $(i,j)$ represents the fact that a pull of arm $i$ triggers the evolution of arm $j$, and vice versa. Interestingly, rested and restless bandits are both special cases of our model for some suitable (degenerated) graph. As relevant case studies for this setting, we focus on two specific types of monotonic bandits: rising, where the expected reward of an arm grows as the number of triggers increases, and rotting, where the opposite behavior occurs. For these cases, we study the optimal policies. We provide suitable algorithms for all scenarios and discuss their theoretical guarantees, highlighting the complexity of the learning problem concerning instance-dependent terms that encode specific properties of the underlying graph structure.

A Primal-Dual Online Learning Approach for Dynamic Pricing of Sequentially Displayed Complementary Items under Sale Constraints

We address the challenging problem of dynamically pricing complementary items that are sequentially displayed to customers. An illustrative example is the online sale of flight tickets, where customers navigate through multiple web pages. Initially, they view the ticket cost, followed by ancillary expenses such as insurance and additional luggage fees. Coherent pricing policies for complementary items are essential because optimizing the pricing of each item individually is ineffective. Our scenario also involves a sales constraint, which specifies a minimum number of items to sell, and uncertainty regarding customer demand curves. To tackle this problem, we originally formulate it as a Markov Decision Process with constraints. Leveraging online learning tools, we design a primal-dual online optimization algorithm. We empirically evaluate our approach using synthetic settings randomly generated from real-world data, covering various configurations from stationary to non-stationary, and compare its performance in terms of constraints violation and regret against well-known baselines optimizing each state singularly.

Learning Constrained Markov Decision Processes With Non-stationary Rewards and Constraints

In constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) with adversarial rewards and constraints, a well-known impossibility result prevents any algorithm from attaining both sublinear regret and sublinear constraint violation, when competing against a best-in-hindsight policy that satisfies constraints on average. In this paper, we show that this negative result can be eased in CMDPs with non-stationary rewards and constraints, by providing algorithms whose performances smoothly degrade as non-stationarity increases. Specifically, we propose algorithms attaining $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} (\sqrt{T} + C)$ regret and positive constraint violation under bandit feedback, where $C$ is a corruption value measuring the environment non-stationarity. This can be $\Theta(T)$ in the worst case, coherently with the impossibility result for adversarial CMDPs. First, we design an algorithm with the desired guarantees when $C$ is known. Then, in the case $C$ is unknown, we show how to obtain the same results by embedding such an algorithm in a general meta-procedure. This is of independent interest, as it can be applied to any non-stationary constrained online learning setting.

Learning Adversarial MDPs with Stochastic Hard Constraints

We study online learning problems in constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) with adversarial losses and stochastic hard constraints. We consider two different scenarios. In the first one, we address general CMDPs, where we design an algorithm that attains sublinear regret and cumulative positive constraints violation. In the second scenario, under the mild assumption that a policy strictly satisfying the constraints exists and is known to the learner, we design an algorithm that achieves sublinear regret while ensuring that the constraints are satisfied at every episode with high probability. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to study CMDPs involving both adversarial losses and hard constraints. Indeed, previous works either focus on much weaker soft constraints--allowing for positive violation to cancel out negative ones--or are restricted to stochastic losses. Thus, our algorithms can deal with general non-stationary environments subject to requirements much stricter than those manageable with state-of-the-art algorithms. This enables their adoption in a much wider range of real-world applications, ranging from autonomous driving to online advertising and recommender systems.

Markov Persuasion Processes: Learning to Persuade from Scratch

In Bayesian persuasion, an informed sender strategically discloses information to a receiver so as to persuade them to undertake desirable actions. Recently, a growing attention has been devoted to settings in which sender and receivers interact sequentially. Recently, Markov persuasion processes (MPPs) have been introduced to capture sequential scenarios where a sender faces a stream of myopic receivers in a Markovian environment. The MPPs studied so far in the literature suffer from issues that prevent them from being fully operational in practice, e.g., they assume that the sender knows receivers' rewards. We fix such issues by addressing MPPs where the sender has no knowledge about the environment. We design a learning algorithm for the sender, working with partial feedback. We prove that its regret with respect to an optimal information-disclosure policy grows sublinearly in the number of episodes, as it is the case for the loss in persuasiveness cumulated while learning. Moreover, we provide a lower bound for our setting matching the guarantees of our algorithm.

Towards Fully Adaptive Regret Minimization in Heavy-Tailed Bandits

Heavy-tailed distributions naturally arise in many settings, from finance to telecommunications. While regret minimization under sub-Gaussian or bounded support rewards has been widely studied, learning on heavy-tailed distributions only gained popularity over the last decade. In the stochastic heavy-tailed bandit problem, an agent learns under the assumption that the distributions have finite moments of maximum order $1+\epsilon$ which are uniformly bounded by a constant $u$, for some $\epsilon \in (0,1]$. To the best of our knowledge, literature only provides algorithms requiring these two quantities as an input. In this paper, we study the stochastic adaptive heavy-tailed bandit, a variation of the standard setting where both $\epsilon$ and $u$ are unknown to the agent. We show that adaptivity comes at a cost, introducing two lower bounds on the regret of any adaptive algorithm, implying a higher regret w.r.t. the standard setting. Finally, we introduce a specific distributional assumption and provide Adaptive Robust UCB, a regret minimization strategy matching the known lower bound for the heavy-tailed MAB problem.