Creating Probabilistic Forecasts from Arbitrary Deterministic Forecasts using Conditional Invertible Neural Networks

In various applications, probabilistic forecasts are required to quantify the inherent uncertainty associated with the forecast. However, numerous modern forecasting methods are still designed to create deterministic forecasts. Transforming these deterministic forecasts into probabilistic forecasts is often challenging and based on numerous assumptions that may not hold in real-world situations. Therefore, the present article proposes a novel approach for creating probabilistic forecasts from arbitrary deterministic forecasts. In order to implement this approach, we use a conditional Invertible Neural Network (cINN). More specifically, we apply a cINN to learn the underlying distribution of the data and then combine the uncertainty from this distribution with an arbitrary deterministic forecast to generate accurate probabilistic forecasts. Our approach enables the simple creation of probabilistic forecasts without complicated statistical loss functions or further assumptions. Besides showing the mathematical validity of our approach, we empirically show that our approach noticeably outperforms traditional methods for including uncertainty in deterministic forecasts and generally outperforms state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting benchmarks.

Compressing Sensor Data for Remote Assistance of Autonomous Vehicles using Deep Generative Models

In the foreseeable future, autonomous vehicles will require human assistance in situations they can not resolve on their own. In such scenarios, remote assistance from a human can provide the required input for the vehicle to continue its operation. Typical sensors used in autonomous vehicles include camera and lidar sensors. Due to the massive volume of sensor data that must be sent in real-time, highly efficient data compression is elementary to prevent an overload of network infrastructure. Sensor data compression using deep generative neural networks has been shown to outperform traditional compression approaches for both image and lidar data, regarding compression rate as well as reconstruction quality. However, there is a lack of research about the performance of generative-neural-network-based compression algorithms for remote assistance. In order to gain insights into the feasibility of deep generative models for usage in remote assistance, we evaluate state-of-the-art algorithms regarding their applicability and identify potential weaknesses. Further, we implement an online pipeline for processing sensor data and demonstrate its performance for remote assistance using the CARLA simulator.