Unsupervised Discovery of Clinical Disease Signatures Using Probabilistic Independence

Insufficiently precise diagnosis of clinical disease is likely responsible for many treatment failures, even for common conditions and treatments. With a large enough dataset, it may be possible to use unsupervised machine learning to define clinical disease patterns more precisely. We present an approach to learning these patterns by using probabilistic independence to disentangle the imprint on the medical record of causal latent sources of disease. We inferred a broad set of 2000 clinical signatures of latent sources from 9195 variables in 269,099 Electronic Health Records. The learned signatures produced better discrimination than the original variables in a lung cancer prediction task unknown to the inference algorithm, predicting 3-year malignancy in patients with no history of cancer before a solitary lung nodule was discovered. More importantly, the signatures' greater explanatory power identified pre-nodule signatures of apparently undiagnosed cancer in many of those patients.

Longitudinal Multimodal Transformer Integrating Imaging and Latent Clinical Signatures From Routine EHRs for Pulmonary Nodule Classification

The accuracy of predictive models for solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN) diagnosis can be greatly increased by incorporating repeat imaging and medical context, such as electronic health records (EHRs). However, clinically routine modalities such as imaging and diagnostic codes can be asynchronous and irregularly sampled over different time scales which are obstacles to longitudinal multimodal learning. In this work, we propose a transformer-based multimodal strategy to integrate repeat imaging with longitudinal clinical signatures from routinely collected EHRs for SPN classification. We perform unsupervised disentanglement of latent clinical signatures and leverage time-distance scaled self-attention to jointly learn from clinical signatures expressions and chest computed tomography (CT) scans. Our classifier is pretrained on 2,668 scans from a public dataset and 1,149 subjects with longitudinal chest CTs, billing codes, medications, and laboratory tests from EHRs of our home institution. Evaluation on 227 subjects with challenging SPNs revealed a significant AUC improvement over a longitudinal multimodal baseline (0.824 vs 0.752 AUC), as well as improvements over a single cross-section multimodal scenario (0.809 AUC) and a longitudinal imaging-only scenario (0.741 AUC). This work demonstrates significant advantages with a novel approach for co-learning longitudinal imaging and non-imaging phenotypes with transformers.