A Prompt-Guided Spatio-Temporal Transformer Model for National-Wide Nuclear Radiation Forecasting

Nuclear radiation (NR), which refers to the energy emitted from atomic nuclei during decay, poses substantial risks to human health and environmental safety. Accurate forecasting of nuclear radiation levels is crucial for informed decision-making by both individuals and governments. However, this task is challenging due to the imbalanced distribution of monitoring stations over a wide spatial range and the non-stationary radiation variation patterns. In this study, we introduce NRFormer, an innovative framework tailored for national-wide prediction of nuclear radiation variations. By integrating a non-stationary temporal attention module, an imbalance-aware spatial attention module, and a radiation propagation prompting module, NRFormer collectively captures complex spatio-temporal dynamics of nuclear radiation. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework against seven baselines. This research not only enhances the accuracy and reliability in nuclear radiation forecasting but also contributes to advancing emergency response strategies and monitoring systems, thereby safeguarding environmental and public health.

Meta-Transfer Learning Empowered Temporal Graph Networks for Cross-City Real Estate Appraisal

Real estate appraisal is important for a variety of endeavors such as real estate deals, investment analysis, and real property taxation. Recently, deep learning has shown great promise for real estate appraisal by harnessing substantial online transaction data from web platforms. Nonetheless, deep learning is data-hungry, and thus it may not be trivially applicable to enormous small cities with limited data. To this end, we propose Meta-Transfer Learning Empowered Temporal Graph Networks (MetaTransfer) to transfer valuable knowledge from multiple data-rich metropolises to the data-scarce city to improve valuation performance. Specifically, by modeling the ever-growing real estate transactions with associated residential communities as a temporal event heterogeneous graph, we first design an Event-Triggered Temporal Graph Network to model the irregular spatiotemporal correlations between evolving real estate transactions. Besides, we formulate the city-wide real estate appraisal as a multi-task dynamic graph link label prediction problem, where the valuation of each community in a city is regarded as an individual task. A Hypernetwork-Based Multi-Task Learning module is proposed to simultaneously facilitate intra-city knowledge sharing between multiple communities and task-specific parameters generation to accommodate the community-wise real estate price distribution. Furthermore, we propose a Tri-Level Optimization Based Meta- Learning framework to adaptively re-weight training transaction instances from multiple source cities to mitigate negative transfer, and thus improve the cross-city knowledge transfer effectiveness. Finally, extensive experiments based on five real-world datasets demonstrate the significant superiority of MetaTransfer compared with eleven baseline algorithms.

GraphLoRA: Structure-Aware Contrastive Low-Rank Adaptation for Cross-Graph Transfer Learning

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in handling a range of graph analytical tasks across various domains, such as e-commerce and social networks. Despite their versatility, GNNs face significant challenges in transferability, limiting their utility in real-world applications. Existing research in GNN transfer learning overlooks discrepancies in distribution among various graph datasets, facing challenges when transferring across different distributions. How to effectively adopt a well-trained GNN to new graphs with varying feature and structural distributions remains an under-explored problem. Taking inspiration from the success of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) in adapting large language models to various domains, we propose GraphLoRA, an effective and parameter-efficient method for transferring well-trained GNNs to diverse graph domains. Specifically, we first propose a Structure-aware Maximum Mean Discrepancy (SMMD) to align divergent node feature distributions across source and target graphs. Moreover, we introduce low-rank adaptation by injecting a small trainable GNN alongside the pre-trained one, effectively bridging structural distribution gaps while mitigating the catastrophic forgetting. Additionally, a structure-aware regularization objective is proposed to enhance the adaptability of the pre-trained GNN to target graph with scarce supervision labels. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of GraphLoRA against eleven baselines by tuning only 20% of parameters, even across disparate graph domains. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/GraphLoRA.

Erase then Rectify: A Training-Free Parameter Editing Approach for Cost-Effective Graph Unlearning

Graph unlearning, which aims to eliminate the influence of specific nodes, edges, or attributes from a trained Graph Neural Network (GNN), is essential in applications where privacy, bias, or data obsolescence is a concern. However, existing graph unlearning techniques often necessitate additional training on the remaining data, leading to significant computational costs, particularly with large-scale graphs. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stage training-free approach, Erase then Rectify (ETR), designed for efficient and scalable graph unlearning while preserving the model utility. Specifically, we first build a theoretical foundation showing that masking parameters critical for unlearned samples enables effective unlearning. Building on this insight, the Erase stage strategically edits model parameters to eliminate the impact of unlearned samples and their propagated influence on intercorrelated nodes. To further ensure the GNN's utility, the Rectify stage devises a gradient approximation method to estimate the model's gradient on the remaining dataset, which is then used to enhance model performance. Overall, ETR achieves graph unlearning without additional training or full training data access, significantly reducing computational overhead and preserving data privacy. Extensive experiments on seven public datasets demonstrate the consistent superiority of ETR in model utility, unlearning efficiency, and unlearning effectiveness, establishing it as a promising solution for real-world graph unlearning challenges.

Spatial-Temporal Mixture-of-Graph-Experts for Multi-Type Crime Prediction

As various types of crime continue to threaten public safety and economic development, predicting the occurrence of multiple types of crimes becomes increasingly vital for effective prevention measures. Although extensive efforts have been made, most of them overlook the heterogeneity of different crime categories and fail to address the issue of imbalanced spatial distribution. In this work, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Mixture-of-Graph-Experts (ST-MoGE) framework for collective multiple-type crime prediction. To enhance the model's ability to identify diverse spatial-temporal dependencies and mitigate potential conflicts caused by spatial-temporal heterogeneity of different crime categories, we introduce an attentive-gated Mixture-of-Graph-Experts (MGEs) module to capture the distinctive and shared crime patterns of each crime category. Then, we propose Cross-Expert Contrastive Learning(CECL) to update the MGEs and force each expert to focus on specific pattern modeling, thereby reducing blending and redundancy. Furthermore, to address the issue of imbalanced spatial distribution, we propose a Hierarchical Adaptive Loss Re-weighting (HALR) approach to eliminate biases and insufficient learning of data-scarce regions. To evaluate the effectiveness of our methods, we conduct comprehensive experiments on two real-world crime datasets and compare our results with twelve advanced baselines. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our methods.

Empowering Pre-Trained Language Models for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting via Decoupling Enhanced Discrete Reprogramming

Spatio-temporal time series forecasting plays a critical role in various real-world applications, such as transportation optimization, energy management, and climate analysis. The recent advancements in Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) have inspired efforts to reprogram these models for time series forecasting tasks, by leveraging their superior reasoning and generalization capabilities. However, existing approaches fall short in handling complex spatial inter-series dependencies and intrinsic intra-series frequency components, limiting their spatio-temporal forecasting performance. Moreover, the linear mapping of continuous time series to a compressed subset vocabulary in reprogramming constrains the spatio-temporal semantic expressivity of PLMs and may lead to potential information bottleneck. To overcome the above limitations, we propose \textsc{RePST}, a tailored PLM reprogramming framework for spatio-temporal forecasting. The key insight of \textsc{RePST} is to decouple the spatio-temporal dynamics in the frequency domain, allowing better alignment with the PLM text space. Specifically, we first decouple spatio-temporal data in Fourier space and devise a structural diffusion operator to obtain temporal intrinsic and spatial diffusion signals, making the dynamics more comprehensible and predictable for PLMs. To avoid information bottleneck from a limited vocabulary, we further propose a discrete reprogramming strategy that selects relevant discrete textual information from an expanded vocabulary space in a differentiable manner. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets show that our proposed approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art spatio-temporal forecasting models, particularly in data-scarce scenarios.

Simplified Mamba with Disentangled Dependency Encoding for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Recently many deep learning models have been proposed for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF). Based on previous literature, we identify three critical patterns that can improve forecasting accuracy: the order and semantic dependencies in time dimension as well as cross-variate dependency. However, little effort has been made to simultaneously consider order and semantic dependencies when developing forecasting models. Moreover, existing approaches utilize cross-variate dependency by mixing information from different timestamps and variates, which may introduce irrelevant or harmful cross-variate information to the time dimension and largely hinder forecasting performance. To overcome these limitations, we investigate the potential of Mamba for LTSF and discover two key advantages benefiting forecasting: (i) the selection mechanism makes Mamba focus on or ignore specific inputs and learn semantic dependency easily, and (ii) Mamba preserves order dependency by processing sequences recursively. After that, we empirically find that the non-linear activation used in Mamba is unnecessary for semantically sparse time series data. Therefore, we further propose SAMBA, a Simplified Mamba with disentangled dependency encoding. Specifically, we first remove the non-linearities of Mamba to make it more suitable for LTSF. Furthermore, we propose a disentangled dependency encoding strategy to endow Mamba with cross-variate dependency modeling capabilities while reducing the interference between time and variate dimensions. Extensive experimental results on seven real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SAMBA over state-of-the-art forecasting models.

Interpretable Cascading Mixture-of-Experts for Urban Traffic Congestion Prediction

Rapid urbanization has significantly escalated traffic congestion, underscoring the need for advanced congestion prediction services to bolster intelligent transportation systems. As one of the world's largest ride-hailing platforms, DiDi places great emphasis on the accuracy of congestion prediction to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of their real-time services, such as travel time estimation and route planning. Despite numerous efforts have been made on congestion prediction, most of them fall short in handling heterogeneous and dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies (e.g., periodic and non-periodic congestions), particularly in the presence of noisy and incomplete traffic data. In this paper, we introduce a Congestion Prediction Mixture-of-Experts, CP-MoE, to address the above challenges. We first propose a sparsely-gated Mixture of Adaptive Graph Learners (MAGLs) with congestion-aware inductive biases to improve the model capacity for efficiently capturing complex spatio-temporal dependencies in varying traffic scenarios. Then, we devise two specialized experts to help identify stable trends and periodic patterns within the traffic data, respectively. By cascading these experts with MAGLs, CP-MoE delivers congestion predictions in a more robust and interpretable manner. Furthermore, an ordinal regression strategy is adopted to facilitate effective collaboration among diverse experts. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method compared with state-of-the-art spatio-temporal prediction models. More importantly, CP-MoE has been deployed in DiDi to improve the accuracy and reliability of the travel time estimation system.

Towards Urban General Intelligence: A Review and Outlook of Urban Foundation Models

Machine learning techniques are now integral to the advancement of intelligent urban services, playing a crucial role in elevating the efficiency, sustainability, and livability of urban environments. The recent emergence of foundation models such as ChatGPT marks a revolutionary shift in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence. Their unparalleled capabilities in contextual understanding, problem solving, and adaptability across a wide range of tasks suggest that integrating these models into urban domains could have a transformative impact on the development of smart cities. Despite growing interest in Urban Foundation Models~(UFMs), this burgeoning field faces challenges such as a lack of clear definitions, systematic reviews, and universalizable solutions. To this end, this paper first introduces the concept of UFM and discusses the unique challenges involved in building them. We then propose a data-centric taxonomy that categorizes current UFM-related works, based on urban data modalities and types. Furthermore, to foster advancement in this field, we present a promising framework aimed at the prospective realization of UFMs, designed to overcome the identified challenges. Additionally, we explore the application landscape of UFMs, detailing their potential impact in various urban contexts. Relevant papers and open-source resources have been collated and are continuously updated at https://github.com/usail-hkust/Awesome-Urban-Foundation-Models.

Machine Learning for Urban Air Quality Analytics: A Survey

The increasing air pollution poses an urgent global concern with far-reaching consequences, such as premature mortality and reduced crop yield, which significantly impact various aspects of our daily lives. Accurate and timely analysis of air pollution is crucial for understanding its underlying mechanisms and implementing necessary precautions to mitigate potential socio-economic losses. Traditional analytical methodologies, such as atmospheric modeling, heavily rely on domain expertise and often make simplified assumptions that may not be applicable to complex air pollution problems. In contrast, Machine Learning (ML) models are able to capture the intrinsic physical and chemical rules by automatically learning from a large amount of historical observational data, showing great promise in various air quality analytical tasks. In this article, we present a comprehensive survey of ML-based air quality analytics, following a roadmap spanning from data acquisition to pre-processing, and encompassing various analytical tasks such as pollution pattern mining, air quality inference, and forecasting. Moreover, we offer a systematic categorization and summary of existing methodologies and applications, while also providing a list of publicly available air quality datasets to ease the research in this direction. Finally, we identify several promising future research directions. This survey can serve as a valuable resource for professionals seeking suitable solutions for their specific challenges and advancing their research at the cutting edge.