Aiding Humans in Financial Fraud Decision Making: Toward an XAI-Visualization Framework

AI prevails in financial fraud detection and decision making. Yet, due to concerns about biased automated decision making or profiling, regulations mandate that final decisions are made by humans. Financial fraud investigators face the challenge of manually synthesizing vast amounts of unstructured information, including AI alerts, transaction histories, social media insights, and governmental laws. Current Visual Analytics (VA) systems primarily support isolated aspects of this process, such as explaining binary AI alerts and visualizing transaction patterns, thus adding yet another layer of information to the overall complexity. In this work, we propose a framework where the VA system supports decision makers throughout all stages of financial fraud investigation, including data collection, information synthesis, and human criteria iteration. We illustrate how VA can claim a central role in AI-aided decision making, ensuring that human judgment remains in control while minimizing potential biases and labor-intensive tasks.

How to Distinguish AI-Generated Images from Authentic Photographs

The high level of photorealism in state-of-the-art diffusion models like Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, and Firefly makes it difficult for untrained humans to distinguish between real photographs and AI-generated images. To address this problem, we designed a guide to help readers develop a more critical eye toward identifying artifacts, inconsistencies, and implausibilities that often appear in AI-generated images. The guide is organized into five categories of artifacts and implausibilities: anatomical, stylistic, functional, violations of physics, and sociocultural. For this guide, we generated 138 images with diffusion models, curated 9 images from social media, and curated 42 real photographs. These images showcase the kinds of cues that prompt suspicion towards the possibility an image is AI-generated and why it is often difficult to draw conclusions about an image's provenance without any context beyond the pixels in an image. Human-perceptible artifacts are not always present in AI-generated images, but this guide reveals artifacts and implausibilities that often emerge. By drawing attention to these kinds of artifacts and implausibilities, we aim to better equip people to distinguish AI-generated images from real photographs in the future.

Visualization for Trust in Machine Learning Revisited: The State of the Field in 2023

Visualization for explainable and trustworthy machine learning remains one of the most important and heavily researched fields within information visualization and visual analytics with various application domains, such as medicine, finance, and bioinformatics. After our 2020 state-of-the-art report comprising 200 techniques, we have persistently collected peer-reviewed articles describing visualization techniques, categorized them based on the previously established categorization schema consisting of 119 categories, and provided the resulting collection of 542 techniques in an online survey browser. In this survey article, we present the updated findings of new analyses of this dataset as of fall 2023 and discuss trends, insights, and eight open challenges for using visualizations in machine learning. Our results corroborate the rapidly growing trend of visualization techniques for increasing trust in machine learning models in the past three years, with visualization found to help improve popular model explainability methods and check new deep learning architectures, for instance.

DimVis: Interpreting Visual Clusters in Dimensionality Reduction With Explainable Boosting Machine

Dimensionality Reduction (DR) techniques such as t-SNE and UMAP are popular for transforming complex datasets into simpler visual representations. However, while effective in uncovering general dataset patterns, these methods may introduce artifacts and suffer from interpretability issues. This paper presents DimVis, a visualization tool that employs supervised Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) models (trained on user-selected data of interest) as an interpretation assistant for DR projections. Our tool facilitates high-dimensional data analysis by providing an interpretation of feature relevance in visual clusters through interactive exploration of UMAP projections. Specifically, DimVis uses a contrastive EBM model that is trained in real time to differentiate between the data inside and outside a cluster of interest. Taking advantage of the inherent explainable nature of the EBM, we then use this model to interpret the cluster itself via single and pairwise feature comparisons in a ranking based on the EBM model's feature importance. The applicability and effectiveness of DimVis are demonstrated through two use cases involving real-world datasets, and we also discuss the limitations and potential directions for future research.

Evaluating the Utility of Conformal Prediction Sets for AI-Advised Image Labeling

As deep neural networks are more commonly deployed in high-stakes domains, their lack of interpretability makes uncertainty quantification challenging. We investigate the effects of presenting conformal prediction sets$\unicode{x2013}$a method for generating valid confidence sets in distribution-free uncertainty quantification$\unicode{x2013}$to express uncertainty in AI-advised decision-making. Through a large online experiment, we compare the utility of conformal prediction sets to displays of Top-$1$ and Top-$k$ predictions for AI-advised image labeling. We find that the utility of prediction sets for accuracy varies with the difficulty of the task: while they result in accuracy on par with or less than Top-$1$ and Top-$k$ displays for easy images, prediction sets excel at assisting humans in labeling out-of-distribution (OOD) images especially when the set size is small. Our results empirically pinpoint the practical challenges of conformal prediction sets and provide implications on how to incorporate them for real-world decision-making.

Pre-registration for Predictive Modeling

Amid rising concerns of reproducibility and generalizability in predictive modeling, we explore the possibility and potential benefits of introducing pre-registration to the field. Despite notable advancements in predictive modeling, spanning core machine learning tasks to various scientific applications, challenges such as overlooked contextual factors, data-dependent decision-making, and unintentional re-use of test data have raised questions about the integrity of results. To address these issues, we propose adapting pre-registration practices from explanatory modeling to predictive modeling. We discuss current best practices in predictive modeling and their limitations, introduce a lightweight pre-registration template, and present a qualitative study with machine learning researchers to gain insight into the effectiveness of pre-registration in preventing biased estimates and promoting more reliable research outcomes. We conclude by exploring the scope of problems that pre-registration can address in predictive modeling and acknowledging its limitations within this context.

DeforestVis: Behavior Analysis of Machine Learning Models with Surrogate Decision Stumps

As the complexity of machine learning (ML) models increases and the applications in different (and critical) domains grow, there is a strong demand for more interpretable and trustworthy ML. One straightforward and model-agnostic way to interpret complex ML models is to train surrogate models, such as rule sets and decision trees, that sufficiently approximate the original ones while being simpler and easier-to-explain. Yet, rule sets can become very lengthy, with many if-else statements, and decision tree depth grows rapidly when accurately emulating complex ML models. In such cases, both approaches can fail to meet their core goal, providing users with model interpretability. We tackle this by proposing DeforestVis, a visual analytics tool that offers user-friendly summarization of the behavior of complex ML models by providing surrogate decision stumps (one-level decision trees) generated with the adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) technique. Our solution helps users to explore the complexity vs fidelity trade-off by incrementally generating more stumps, creating attribute-based explanations with weighted stumps to justify decision making, and analyzing the impact of rule overriding on training instance allocation between one or more stumps. An independent test set allows users to monitor the effectiveness of manual rule changes and form hypotheses based on case-by-case investigations. We show the applicability and usefulness of DeforestVis with two use cases and expert interviews with data analysts and model developers.

MetaStackVis: Visually-Assisted Performance Evaluation of Metamodels

Stacking (or stacked generalization) is an ensemble learning method with one main distinctiveness from the rest: even though several base models are trained on the original data set, their predictions are further used as input data for one or more metamodels arranged in at least one extra layer. Composing a stack of models can produce high-performance outcomes, but it usually involves a trial-and-error process. Therefore, our previously developed visual analytics system, StackGenVis, was mainly designed to assist users in choosing a set of top-performing and diverse models by measuring their predictive performance. However, it only employs a single logistic regression metamodel. In this paper, we investigate the impact of alternative metamodels on the performance of stacking ensembles using a novel visualization tool, called MetaStackVis. Our interactive tool helps users to visually explore different singular and pairs of metamodels according to their predictive probabilities and multiple validation metrics, as well as their ability to predict specific problematic data instances. MetaStackVis was evaluated with a usage scenario based on a medical data set and via expert interviews.

HardVis: Visual Analytics to Handle Instance Hardness Using Undersampling and Oversampling Techniques

Despite the tremendous advances in machine learning (ML), training with imbalanced data still poses challenges in many real-world applications. Among a series of diverse techniques to solve this problem, sampling algorithms are regarded as an efficient solution. However, the problem is more fundamental, with many works emphasizing the importance of instance hardness. This issue refers to the significance of managing unsafe or potentially noisy instances that are more likely to be misclassified and serve as the root cause of poor classification performance. This paper introduces HardVis, a visual analytics system designed to handle instance hardness mainly in imbalanced classification scenarios. Our proposed system assists users in visually comparing different distributions of data types, selecting types of instances based on local characteristics that will later be affected by the active sampling method, and validating which suggestions from undersampling or oversampling techniques are beneficial for the ML model. Additionally, rather than uniformly undersampling/oversampling a specific class, we allow users to find and sample easy and difficult to classify training instances from all classes. Users can explore subsets of data from different perspectives to decide all those parameters, while HardVis keeps track of their steps and evaluates the model's predictive performance in a test set separately. The end result is a well-balanced data set that boosts the predictive power of the ML model. The efficacy and effectiveness of HardVis are demonstrated with a hypothetical usage scenario and a use case. Finally, we also look at how useful our system is based on feedback we received from ML experts.

VisRuler: Visual Analytics for Extracting Decision Rules from Bagged and Boosted Decision Trees

Bagging and boosting are two popular ensemble methods in machine learning (ML) that produce many individual decision trees. Due to the inherent ensemble characteristic of these methods, they typically outperform single decision trees or other ML models in predictive performance. However, numerous decision paths are generated for each decision tree, increasing the overall complexity of the model and hindering its use in domains that require trustworthy and explainable decisions, such as finance, social care, and health care. Thus, the interpretability of bagging and boosting algorithms, such as random forests and adaptive boosting, reduces as the number of decisions rises. In this paper, we propose a visual analytics tool that aims to assist users in extracting decisions from such ML models via a thorough visual inspection workflow that includes selecting a set of robust and diverse models (originating from different ensemble learning algorithms), choosing important features according to their global contribution, and deciding which decisions are essential for global explanation (or locally, for specific cases). The outcome is a final decision based on the class agreement of several models and the explored manual decisions exported by users. Finally, we evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of VisRuler via a use case, a usage scenario, and a user study.