Fast and Reliable Probabilistic Reflectometry Inversion with Prior-Amortized Neural Posterior Estimation

Reconstructing the structure of thin films and multilayers from measurements of scattered X-rays or neutrons is key to progress in physics, chemistry, and biology. However, finding all structures compatible with reflectometry data is computationally prohibitive for standard algorithms, which typically results in unreliable analysis with only a single potential solution identified. We address this lack of reliability with a probabilistic deep learning method that identifies all realistic structures in seconds, setting new standards in reflectometry. Our method, Prior-Amortized Neural Posterior Estimation (PANPE), combines simulation-based inference with novel adaptive priors that inform the inference network about known structural properties and controllable experimental conditions. PANPE networks support key scenarios such as high-throughput sample characterization, real-time monitoring of evolving structures, or the co-refinement of several experimental data sets, and can be adapted to provide fast, reliable, and flexible inference across many other inverse problems.

Predictive, scalable and interpretable knowledge tracing on structured domains

Intelligent tutoring systems optimize the selection and timing of learning materials to enhance understanding and long-term retention. This requires estimates of both the learner's progress (''knowledge tracing''; KT), and the prerequisite structure of the learning domain (''knowledge mapping''). While recent deep learning models achieve high KT accuracy, they do so at the expense of the interpretability of psychologically-inspired models. In this work, we present a solution to this trade-off. PSI-KT is a hierarchical generative approach that explicitly models how both individual cognitive traits and the prerequisite structure of knowledge influence learning dynamics, thus achieving interpretability by design. Moreover, by using scalable Bayesian inference, PSI-KT targets the real-world need for efficient personalization even with a growing body of learners and learning histories. Evaluated on three datasets from online learning platforms, PSI-KT achieves superior multi-step predictive accuracy and scalable inference in continual-learning settings, all while providing interpretable representations of learner-specific traits and the prerequisite structure of knowledge that causally supports learning. In sum, predictive, scalable and interpretable knowledge tracing with solid knowledge mapping lays a key foundation for effective personalized learning to make education accessible to a broad, global audience.

Spatiotemporal modeling of European paleoclimate using doubly sparse Gaussian processes

Paleoclimatology -- the study of past climate -- is relevant beyond climate science itself, such as in archaeology and anthropology for understanding past human dispersal. Information about the Earth's paleoclimate comes from simulations of physical and biogeochemical processes and from proxy records found in naturally occurring archives. Climate-field reconstructions (CFRs) combine these data into a statistical spatial or spatiotemporal model. To date, there exists no consensus spatiotemporal paleoclimate model that is continuous in space and time, produces predictions with uncertainty, and can include data from various sources. A Gaussian process (GP) model would have these desired properties; however, GPs scale unfavorably with data of the magnitude typical for building CFRs. We propose to build on recent advances in sparse spatiotemporal GPs that reduce the computational burden by combining variational methods based on inducing variables with the state-space formulation of GPs. We successfully employ such a doubly sparse GP to construct a probabilistic model of European paleoclimate from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid-Holocene (MH) that synthesizes paleoclimate simulations and fossilized pollen proxy data.

GATSBI: Generative Adversarial Training for Simulation-Based Inference

Simulation-based inference (SBI) refers to statistical inference on stochastic models for which we can generate samples, but not compute likelihoods. Like SBI algorithms, generative adversarial networks (GANs) do not require explicit likelihoods. We study the relationship between SBI and GANs, and introduce GATSBI, an adversarial approach to SBI. GATSBI reformulates the variational objective in an adversarial setting to learn implicit posterior distributions. Inference with GATSBI is amortised across observations, works in high-dimensional posterior spaces and supports implicit priors. We evaluate GATSBI on two SBI benchmark problems and on two high-dimensional simulators. On a model for wave propagation on the surface of a shallow water body, we show that GATSBI can return well-calibrated posterior estimates even in high dimensions. On a model of camera optics, it infers a high-dimensional posterior given an implicit prior, and performs better than a state-of-the-art SBI approach. We also show how GATSBI can be extended to perform sequential posterior estimation to focus on individual observations. Overall, GATSBI opens up opportunities for leveraging advances in GANs to perform Bayesian inference on high-dimensional simulation-based models.