"Confidently Nonsensical?'': A Critical Survey on the Perspectives and Challenges of 'Hallucinations' in NLP

We investigate how hallucination in large language models (LLM) is characterized in peer-reviewed literature using a critical examination of 103 publications across NLP research. Through a comprehensive review of sociological and technological literature, we identify a lack of agreement with the term `hallucination.' Additionally, we conduct a survey with 171 practitioners from the field of NLP and AI to capture varying perspectives on hallucination. Our analysis underscores the necessity for explicit definitions and frameworks outlining hallucination within NLP, highlighting potential challenges, and our survey inputs provide a thematic understanding of the influence and ramifications of hallucination in society.

A prototype hybrid prediction market for estimating replicability of published work

We present a prototype hybrid prediction market and demonstrate the avenue it represents for meaningful human-AI collaboration. We build on prior work proposing artificial prediction markets as a novel machine-learning algorithm. In an artificial prediction market, trained AI agents buy and sell outcomes of future events. Classification decisions can be framed as outcomes of future events, and accordingly, the price of an asset corresponding to a given classification outcome can be taken as a proxy for the confidence of the system in that decision. By embedding human participants in these markets alongside bot traders, we can bring together insights from both. In this paper, we detail pilot studies with prototype hybrid markets for the prediction of replication study outcomes. We highlight challenges and opportunities, share insights from semi-structured interviews with hybrid market participants, and outline a vision for ongoing and future work.