Quantifying perturbation impacts for large language models

We consider the problem of quantifying how an input perturbation impacts the outputs of large language models (LLMs), a fundamental task for model reliability and post-hoc interpretability. A key obstacle in this domain is disentangling the meaningful changes in model responses from the intrinsic stochasticity of LLM outputs. To overcome this, we introduce Distribution-Based Perturbation Analysis (DBPA), a framework that reformulates LLM perturbation analysis as a frequentist hypothesis testing problem. DBPA constructs empirical null and alternative output distributions within a low-dimensional semantic similarity space via Monte Carlo sampling. Comparisons of Monte Carlo estimates in the reduced dimensionality space enables tractable frequentist inference without relying on restrictive distributional assumptions. The framework is model-agnostic, supports the evaluation of arbitrary input perturbations on any black-box LLM, yields interpretable p-values, supports multiple perturbation testing via controlled error rates, and provides scalar effect sizes for any chosen similarity or distance metric. We demonstrate the effectiveness of DBPA in evaluating perturbation impacts, showing its versatility for perturbation analysis.

Defining Expertise: Applications to Treatment Effect Estimation

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.

Reference-Limited Compositional Zero-Shot Learning

Compositional zero-shot learning (CZSL) refers to recognizing unseen compositions of known visual primitives, which is an essential ability for artificial intelligence systems to learn and understand the world. While considerable progress has been made on existing benchmarks, we suspect whether popular CZSL methods can address the challenges of few-shot and few referential compositions, which is common when learning in real-world unseen environments. To this end, we study the challenging reference-limited compositional zero-shot learning (RL-CZSL) problem in this paper, i.e. , given limited seen compositions that contain only a few samples as reference, unseen compositions of observed primitives should be identified. We propose a novel Meta Compositional Graph Learner (MetaCGL) that can efficiently learn the compositionality from insufficient referential information and generalize to unseen compositions. Besides, we build a benchmark with two new large-scale datasets that consist of natural images with diverse compositional labels, providing more realistic environments for RL-CZSL. Extensive experiments in the benchmarks show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in recognizing unseen compositions when reference is limited for compositional learning.