Temporal Link Prediction Using Graph Embedding Dynamics

Graphs are a powerful representation tool in machine learning applications, with link prediction being a key task in graph learning. Temporal link prediction in dynamic networks is of particular interest due to its potential for solving complex scientific and real-world problems. Traditional approaches to temporal link prediction have focused on finding the aggregation of dynamics of the network as a unified output. In this study, we propose a novel perspective on temporal link prediction by defining nodes as Newtonian objects and incorporating the concept of velocity to predict network dynamics. By computing more specific dynamics of each node, rather than overall dynamics, we improve both accuracy and explainability in predicting future connections. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using two datasets, including 17 years of co-authorship data from PubMed. Experimental results show that our temporal graph embedding dynamics approach improves downstream classification models' ability to predict future collaboration efficacy in co-authorship networks by 17.34% (AUROC improvement relative to the baseline model). Furthermore, our approach offers an interpretable layer over traditional approaches to address the temporal link prediction problem.

Nightly Automobile Claims Prediction from Telematics-Derived Features: A Multilevel Approach

In recent years it has become possible to collect GPS data from drivers and to incorporate this data into automobile insurance pricing for the driver. This data is continuously collected and processed nightly into metadata consisting of mileage and time summaries of each discrete trip taken, and a set of behavioral scores describing attributes of the trip (e.g, driver fatigue or driver distraction) so we examine whether it can be used to identify periods of increased risk by successfully classifying trips that occur immediately before a trip in which there was an incident leading to a claim for that driver. Identification of periods of increased risk for a driver is valuable because it creates an opportunity for intervention and, potentially, avoidance of a claim. We examine metadata for each trip a driver takes and train a classifier to predict whether \textit{the following trip} is one in which a claim occurs for that driver. By achieving a area under the receiver-operator characteristic above 0.6, we show that it is possible to predict claims in advance. Additionally, we compare the predictive power, as measured by the area under the receiver-operator characteristic of XGBoost classifiers trained to predict whether a driver will have a claim using exposure features such as driven miles, and those trained using behavioral features such as a computed speed score.

SupCL-Seq: Supervised Contrastive Learning for Downstream Optimized Sequence Representations

While contrastive learning is proven to be an effective training strategy in computer vision, Natural Language Processing (NLP) is only recently adopting it as a self-supervised alternative to Masked Language Modeling (MLM) for improving sequence representations. This paper introduces SupCL-Seq, which extends the supervised contrastive learning from computer vision to the optimization of sequence representations in NLP. By altering the dropout mask probability in standard Transformer architectures, for every representation (anchor), we generate augmented altered views. A supervised contrastive loss is then utilized to maximize the system's capability of pulling together similar samples (e.g., anchors and their altered views) and pushing apart the samples belonging to the other classes. Despite its simplicity, SupCLSeq leads to large gains in many sequence classification tasks on the GLUE benchmark compared to a standard BERTbase, including 6% absolute improvement on CoLA, 5.4% on MRPC, 4.7% on RTE and 2.6% on STSB. We also show consistent gains over self supervised contrastively learned representations, especially in non-semantic tasks. Finally we show that these gains are not solely due to augmentation, but rather to a downstream optimized sequence representation. Code: https://github.com/hooman650/SupCL-Seq

Exploring a Unified Sequence-To-Sequence Transformer for Medical Product Safety Monitoring in Social Media

Adverse Events (AE) are harmful events resulting from the use of medical products. Although social media may be crucial for early AE detection, the sheer scale of this data makes it logistically intractable to analyze using human agents, with NLP representing the only low-cost and scalable alternative. In this paper, we frame AE Detection and Extraction as a sequence-to-sequence problem using the T5 model architecture and achieve strong performance improvements over competitive baselines on several English benchmarks (F1 = 0.71, 12.7% relative improvement for AE Detection; Strict F1 = 0.713, 12.4% relative improvement for AE Extraction). Motivated by the strong commonalities between AE-related tasks, the class imbalance in AE benchmarks and the linguistic and structural variety typical of social media posts, we propose a new strategy for multi-task training that accounts, at the same time, for task and dataset characteristics. Our multi-task approach increases model robustness, leading to further performance gains. Finally, our framework shows some language transfer capabilities, obtaining higher performance than Multilingual BERT in zero-shot learning on French data.