ADAF: An Artificial Intelligence Data Assimilation Framework for Weather Forecasting

The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between computational cost and accuracy due to complex linear algebra computations and the high dimensionality of the model, especially in nonlinear systems. Moreover, processing massive data in real-time requires substantial computational resources. To address this, we introduce an artificial intelligence-based data assimilation framework (ADAF) to generate high-quality kilometer-scale analysis. This study is the pioneering work using real-world observations from varied locations and multiple sources to verify the AI method's efficacy in DA, including sparse surface weather observations and satellite imagery. We implemented ADAF for four near-surface variables in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicate that ADAF surpasses the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Data Assimilation System (HRRRDAS) in accuracy by 16% to 33% for near-surface atmospheric conditions, aligning more closely with actual observations, and can effectively reconstruct extreme events, such as tropical cyclone wind fields. Sensitivity experiments reveal that ADAF can generate high-quality analysis even with low-accuracy backgrounds and extremely sparse surface observations. ADAF can assimilate massive observations within a three-hour window at low computational cost, taking about two seconds on an AMD MI200 graphics processing unit (GPU). ADAF has been shown to be efficient and effective in real-world DA, underscoring its potential role in operational weather forecasting.

HouYi: An open-source large language model specially designed for renewable energy and carbon neutrality field

Renewable energy is important for achieving carbon neutrality goal. With the great success of Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT in automatic content generation, LLMs are playing an increasingly important role. However, there has not been a specially designed LLM for renewable energy. Meanwhile, there has not been any dataset of renewable energy for training LLMs. Therefore, this paper published the first open-source Renewable Energy Academic Paper (REAP) dataset for non-commercial LLM research of renewable energy. REAP dataset is collected through searching the title and abstract of 1,168,970 academic literatures from Web of Science. Based on REAP dataset, HouYi model, the first LLM for renewable energy, is developed through finetuning general LLMs. HouYi demonstrated powerful academic paper paragraph generation ability in renewable energy field. Experiments show that its ability to generate academic papers on renewable energy is comparable to ChatGPT, slightly outperforms Claude, ERNIE Bot and SparkDesk, and significantly outperforms open-source LLaMA-13B model.

Short-term probabilistic photovoltaic power forecast based on deep convolutional long short-term memory network and kernel density estimation

Solar energy is a clean and renewable energy. Photovoltaic (PV) power is an important way to utilize solar energy. Accurate PV power forecast is crucial to the large-scale application of PV power and the stability of electricity grid. This paper proposes a novel method for short-term photovoltaic power forecast using deep convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) network and kernel density estimation (KDE). In the proposed method, ConvLSTM is used to forecast the future photovoltaic power and KDE is used for estimating the joint probabilistic density function and giving the probabilistic confidence interval. Experiments in an actual photovoltaic power station verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Comparison experiments with convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM)shows that ConvLSTM can combine the advantages of both CNN and LSTM and significantly outperform CNN and LSTM in terms of forecast accuracy. Through further comparison with other five conventional methods including multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR), extreme learning machine (ELM), classification and regression tree (CART) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), ConvLSTM can significantly improve the forecast accuracy by more than 20% for most of the five methods and the superiorities of ConvLSTM are further verified.