Context Clues: Evaluating Long Context Models for Clinical Prediction Tasks on EHRs

Foundation Models (FMs) trained on Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have achieved state-of-the-art results on numerous clinical prediction tasks. However, most existing EHR FMs have context windows of <1k tokens. This prevents them from modeling full patient EHRs which can exceed 10k's of events. Recent advancements in subquadratic long-context architectures (e.g., Mamba) offer a promising solution. However, their application to EHR data has not been well-studied. We address this gap by presenting the first systematic evaluation of the effect of context length on modeling EHR data. We find that longer context models improve predictive performance -- our Mamba-based model surpasses the prior state-of-the-art on 9/14 tasks on the EHRSHOT prediction benchmark. For clinical applications, however, model performance alone is insufficient -- robustness to the unique properties of EHR is crucial. Thus, we also evaluate models across three previously underexplored properties of EHR data: (1) the prevalence of "copy-forwarded" diagnoses which creates artificial repetition of tokens within EHR sequences; (2) the irregular time intervals between EHR events which can lead to a wide range of timespans within a context window; and (3) the natural increase in disease complexity over time which makes later tokens in the EHR harder to predict than earlier ones. Stratifying our EHRSHOT results, we find that higher levels of each property correlate negatively with model performance, but that longer context models are more robust to more extreme levels of these properties. Our work highlights the potential for using long-context architectures to model EHR data, and offers a case study for identifying new challenges in modeling sequential data motivated by domains outside of natural language. We release our models and code at: https://github.com/som-shahlab/long_context_clues

Do Multimodal Foundation Models Understand Enterprise Workflows? A Benchmark for Business Process Management Tasks

Existing ML benchmarks lack the depth and diversity of annotations needed for evaluating models on business process management (BPM) tasks. BPM is the practice of documenting, measuring, improving, and automating enterprise workflows. However, research has focused almost exclusively on one task - full end-to-end automation using agents based on multimodal foundation models (FMs) like GPT-4. This focus on automation ignores the reality of how most BPM tools are applied today - simply documenting the relevant workflow takes 60% of the time of the typical process optimization project. To address this gap we present WONDERBREAD, the first benchmark for evaluating multimodal FMs on BPM tasks beyond automation. Our contributions are: (1) a dataset containing 2928 documented workflow demonstrations; (2) 6 novel BPM tasks sourced from real-world applications ranging from workflow documentation to knowledge transfer to process improvement; and (3) an automated evaluation harness. Our benchmark shows that while state-of-the-art FMs can automatically generate documentation (e.g. recalling 88% of the steps taken in a video demonstration of a workflow), they struggle to re-apply that knowledge towards finer-grained validation of workflow completion (F1 < 0.3). We hope WONDERBREAD encourages the development of more "human-centered" AI tooling for enterprise applications and furthers the exploration of multimodal FMs for the broader universe of BPM tasks. We publish our dataset and experiments here: https://github.com/HazyResearch/wonderbread