Enabling Inclusive Systematic Reviews: Incorporating Preprint Articles with Large Language Model-Driven Evaluations

Background. Systematic reviews in comparative effectiveness research require timely evidence synthesis. Preprints accelerate knowledge dissemination but vary in quality, posing challenges for systematic reviews. Methods. We propose AutoConfidence (automated confidence assessment), an advanced framework for predicting preprint publication, which reduces reliance on manual curation and expands the range of predictors, including three key advancements: (1) automated data extraction using natural language processing techniques, (2) semantic embeddings of titles and abstracts, and (3) large language model (LLM)-driven evaluation scores. Additionally, we employed two prediction models: a random forest classifier for binary outcome and a survival cure model that predicts both binary outcome and publication risk over time. Results. The random forest classifier achieved AUROC 0.692 with LLM-driven scores, improving to 0.733 with semantic embeddings and 0.747 with article usage metrics. The survival cure model reached AUROC 0.716 with LLM-driven scores, improving to 0.731 with semantic embeddings. For publication risk prediction, it achieved a concordance index of 0.658, increasing to 0.667 with semantic embeddings. Conclusion. Our study advances the framework for preprint publication prediction through automated data extraction and multiple feature integration. By combining semantic embeddings with LLM-driven evaluations, AutoConfidence enhances predictive performance while reducing manual annotation burden. The framework has the potential to facilitate systematic incorporation of preprint articles in evidence-based medicine, supporting researchers in more effective evaluation and utilization of preprint resources.

Distributionally Robust Clustered Federated Learning: A Case Study in Healthcare

In this paper, we address the challenge of heterogeneous data distributions in cross-silo federated learning by introducing a novel algorithm, which we term Cross-silo Robust Clustered Federated Learning (CS-RCFL). Our approach leverages the Wasserstein distance to construct ambiguity sets around each client's empirical distribution that capture possible distribution shifts in the local data, enabling evaluation of worst-case model performance. We then propose a model-agnostic integer fractional program to determine the optimal distributionally robust clustering of clients into coalitions so that possible biases in the local models caused by statistically heterogeneous client datasets are avoided, and analyze our method for linear and logistic regression models. Finally, we discuss a federated learning protocol that ensures the privacy of client distributions, a critical consideration, for instance, when clients are healthcare institutions. We evaluate our algorithm on synthetic and real-world healthcare data.