Factual Confidence of LLMs: on Reliability and Robustness of Current Estimators

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a systematic comparison, it is not clear how the different methods compare to one another. To fill this gap, we present a survey and empirical comparison of estimators of factual confidence. We define an experimental framework allowing for fair comparison, covering both fact-verification and question answering. Our experiments across a series of LLMs indicate that trained hidden-state probes provide the most reliable confidence estimates, albeit at the expense of requiring access to weights and training data. We also conduct a deeper assessment of factual confidence by measuring the consistency of model behavior under meaning-preserving variations in the input. We find that the confidence of LLMs is often unstable across semantically equivalent inputs, suggesting that there is much room for improvement of the stability of models' parametric knowledge. Our code is available at (https://github.com/amazon-science/factual-confidence-of-llms).

Referential communication in heterogeneous communities of pre-trained visual deep networks

As large pre-trained image-processing neural networks are being embedded in autonomous agents such as self-driving cars or robots, the question arises of how such systems can communicate with each other about the surrounding world, despite their different architectures and training regimes. As a first step in this direction, we systematically explore the task of referential communication in a community of state-of-the-art pre-trained visual networks, showing that they can develop a shared protocol to refer to a target image among a set of candidates. Such shared protocol, induced in a self-supervised way, can to some extent be used to communicate about previously unseen object categories, as well as to make more granular distinctions compared to the categories taught to the original networks. Contradicting a common view in multi-agent emergent communication research, we find that imposing a discrete bottleneck on communication hampers the emergence of a general code. Moreover, we show that a new neural network can learn the shared protocol developed in a community with remarkable ease, and the process of integrating a new agent into a community more stably succeeds when the original community includes a larger set of heterogeneous networks. Finally, we illustrate the independent benefits of developing a shared communication layer by using it to directly transfer an object classifier from a network to another, and we qualitatively and quantitatively study its emergent properties.