What Drives Online Popularity: Author, Content or Sharers? Estimating Spread Dynamics with Bayesian Mixture Hawkes

The spread of content on social media is shaped by intertwining factors on three levels: the source, the content itself, and the pathways of content spread. At the lowest level, the popularity of the sharing user determines its eventual reach. However, higher-level factors such as the nature of the online item and the credibility of its source also play crucial roles in determining how widely and rapidly the online item spreads. In this work, we propose the Bayesian Mixture Hawkes (BMH) model to jointly learn the influence of source, content and spread. We formulate the BMH model as a hierarchical mixture model of separable Hawkes processes, accommodating different classes of Hawkes dynamics and the influence of feature sets on these classes. We test the BMH model on two learning tasks, cold-start popularity prediction and temporal profile generalization performance, applying to two real-world retweet cascade datasets referencing articles from controversial and traditional media publishers. The BMH model outperforms the state-of-the-art models and predictive baselines on both datasets and utilizes cascade- and item-level information better than the alternatives. Lastly, we perform a counter-factual analysis where we apply the trained publisher-level BMH models to a set of article headlines and show that effectiveness of headline writing style (neutral, clickbait, inflammatory) varies across publishers. The BMH model unveils differences in style effectiveness between controversial and reputable publishers, where we find clickbait to be notably more effective for reputable publishers as opposed to controversial ones, which links to the latter's overuse of clickbait.

Author, Content or Sharers? Estimating Spread Dynamics with Bayesian Mixture Hawkes

The spread of content on social media is shaped by intertwining factors on three levels: the source, the content itself, and the pathways of content spread. At the lowest level, the popularity of the sharing user determines its eventual reach. However, higher-level factors such as the nature of the online item and the credibility of its source also play crucial roles in determining how widely and rapidly the online item spreads. In this work, we propose the Bayesian Mixture Hawkes (BMH) model to jointly learn the influence of source, content and spread. We formulate the BMH model as a hierarchical mixture model of separable Hawkes processes, accommodating different classes of Hawkes dynamics and the influence of feature sets on these classes. We test the BMH model on two learning tasks, cold-start popularity prediction and temporal profile generalization performance, applying to two real-world retweet cascade datasets referencing articles from controversial and traditional media publishers. The BMH model outperforms the state-of-the-art models and predictive baselines on both datasets and utilizes cascade- and item-level information better than the alternatives. Lastly, we perform a counter-factual analysis where we apply the trained publisher-level BMH models to a set of article headlines and show that effectiveness of headline writing style (neutral, clickbait, inflammatory) varies across publishers. The BMH model unveils differences in style effectiveness between controversial and reputable publishers, where we find clickbait to be notably more effective for reputable publishers as opposed to controversial ones, which links to the latter's overuse of clickbait.

Misinformation is not about Bad Facts: An Analysis of the Production and Consumption of Fringe Content

What if misinformation is not an information problem at all? Our findings suggest that online fringe ideologies spread through the use of content that is consensus-based and "factually correct". We found that Australian news publishers with both moderate and far-right political leanings contain comparable levels of information completeness and quality; and furthermore, that far-right Twitter users often share from moderate sources. However, a stark difference emerges when we consider two additional factors: 1) the narrow topic selection of articles by far-right users, suggesting that they cherrypick only news articles that engage with specific topics of their concern, and 2) the difference between moderate and far-right publishers when we examine the writing style of their articles. Furthermore, we can even identify users prone to sharing misinformation based on their communication style. These findings have important implications for countering online misinformation, as they highlight the powerful role that users' personal bias towards specific topics, and publishers' writing styles, have in amplifying fringe ideologies online.

The Innovation-to-Occupations Ontology: Linking Business Transformation Initiatives to Occupations and Skills

The fast adoption of new technologies forces companies to continuously adapt their operations making it harder to predict workforce requirements. Several recent studies have attempted to predict the emergence of new roles and skills in the labour market from online job ads. This paper aims to present a novel ontology linking business transformation initiatives to occupations and an approach to automatically populating it by leveraging embeddings extracted from job ads and Wikipedia pages on business transformation and emerging technologies topics. To our knowledge, no previous research explicitly links business transformation initiatives, like the adoption of new technologies or the entry into new markets, to the roles needed. Our approach successfully matches occupations to transformation initiatives under ten different scenarios, five linked to technology adoption and five related to business. This framework presents an innovative approach to guide enterprises and educational institutions on the workforce requirements for specific business transformation initiatives.

Enhancing Biomedical Text Summarization and Question-Answering: On the Utility of Domain-Specific Pre-Training

Biomedical summarization requires large datasets to train for text generation. We show that while transfer learning offers a viable option for addressing this challenge, an in-domain pre-training does not always offer advantages in a BioASQ summarization task. We identify a suitable model architecture and use it to show a benefit of a general-domain pre-training followed by a task-specific fine-tuning in the context of a BioASQ summarization task, leading to a novel three-step fine-tuning approach that works with only a thousand in-domain examples. Our results indicate that a Large Language Model without domain-specific pre-training can have a significant edge in some domain-specific biomedical text generation tasks.

Being Automated or Not? Risk Identification of Occupations with Graph Neural Networks

The rapid advances in automation technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, pose an increasing risk of automation for occupations, with a likely significant impact on the labour market. Recent social-economic studies suggest that nearly 50\% of occupations are at high risk of being automated in the next decade. However, the lack of granular data and empirically informed models have limited the accuracy of these studies and made it challenging to predict which jobs will be automated. In this paper, we study the automation risk of occupations by performing a classification task between automated and non-automated occupations. The available information is 910 occupations' task statements, skills and interactions categorised by Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). To fully utilize this information, we propose a graph-based semi-supervised classification method named \textbf{A}utomated \textbf{O}ccupation \textbf{C}lassification based on \textbf{G}raph \textbf{C}onvolutional \textbf{N}etworks (\textbf{AOC-GCN}) to identify the automated risk for occupations. This model integrates a heterogeneous graph to capture occupations' local and global contexts. The results show that our proposed method outperforms the baseline models by considering the information of both internal features of occupations and their external interactions. This study could help policymakers identify potential automated occupations and support individuals' decision-making before entering the job market.

Detect Hate Speech in Unseen Domains using Multi-Task Learning: A Case Study of Political Public Figures

Automatic identification of hateful and abusive content is vital in combating the spread of harmful online content and its damaging effects. Most existing works evaluate models by examining the generalization error on train-test splits on hate speech datasets. These datasets often differ in their definitions and labeling criteria, leading to poor model performance when predicting across new domains and datasets. In this work, we propose a new Multi-task Learning (MTL) pipeline that utilizes MTL to train simultaneously across multiple hate speech datasets to construct a more encompassing classification model. We simulate evaluation on new previously unseen datasets by adopting a leave-one-out scheme in which we omit a target dataset from training and jointly train on the other datasets. Our results consistently outperform a large sample of existing work. We show strong results when examining generalization error in train-test splits and substantial improvements when predicting on previously unseen datasets. Furthermore, we assemble a novel dataset, dubbed PubFigs, focusing on the problematic speech of American Public Political Figures. We automatically detect problematic speech in the $305,235$ tweets in PubFigs, and we uncover insights into the posting behaviors of public figures.

Opinion Market Model: Stemming Far-Right Opinion Spread using Positive Interventions

Recent years have seen the rise of extremist views in the opinion ecosystem we call social media. Allowing online extremism to persist has dire societal consequences, and efforts to mitigate it are continuously explored. Positive interventions, controlled signals that add attention to the opinion ecosystem with the aim of boosting certain opinions, are one such pathway for mitigation. This work proposes a platform to test the effectiveness of positive interventions, through the Opinion Market Model (OMM), a two-tier model of the online opinion ecosystem jointly accounting for both inter-opinion interactions and the role of positive interventions. The first tier models the size of the opinion attention market using the multivariate discrete-time Hawkes process; the second tier leverages the market share attraction model to model opinions cooperating and competing for market share given limited attention. On a synthetic dataset, we show the convergence of our proposed estimation scheme. On a dataset of Facebook and Twitter discussions containing moderate and far-right opinions about bushfires and climate change, we show superior predictive performance over the state-of-the-art and the ability to uncover latent opinion interactions. Lastly, we use OMM to demonstrate the effectiveness of mainstream media coverage as a positive intervention in suppressing far-right opinions.

Linking Across Data Granularity: Fitting Multivariate Hawkes Processes to Partially Interval-Censored Data

This work introduces a novel multivariate temporal point process, the Partial Mean Behavior Poisson (PMBP) process, which can be leveraged to fit the multivariate Hawkes process to partially interval-censored data consisting of a mix of event timestamps on a subset of dimensions and interval-censored event counts on the complementary dimensions. First, we define the PMBP process via its conditional intensity and derive the regularity conditions for subcriticality. We show that both the Hawkes process and the MBP process (Rizoiu et al. (2021)) are special cases of the PMBP process. Second, we provide numerical schemes that enable calculating the conditional intensity and sampling event histories of the PMBP process. Third, we demonstrate the applicability of the PMBP process by empirical testing using synthetic and real-world datasets: We test the capability of the PMBP process to recover multivariate Hawkes parameters given sample event histories of the Hawkes process. Next, we evaluate the PMBP process on the Youtube popularity prediction task and show that it outperforms the current state-of-the-art Hawkes Intensity process (Rizoiu et al. (2017b)). Lastly, on a curated dataset of COVID19 daily case counts and COVID19-related news articles for a sample of countries, we show that clustering on the PMBP-fitted parameters enables a categorization of countries with respect to the country-level interaction of cases and news reporting.

Interval-censored Hawkes processes

Hawkes processes are a popular means of modeling the event times of self-exciting phenomena, such as earthquake strikes or tweets on a topical subject. Classically, these models are fit to historical event time data via likelihood maximization. However, in many scenarios, the exact times of historical events are not recorded for either privacy (e.g., patient admittance to hospitals) or technical limitations (e.g., most transport data records the volume of vehicles passing loop detectors but not the individual times). The interval-censored setting denotes when only the aggregate counts of events at specific time intervals are observed. Fitting the parameters of interval-censored Hawkes processes requires designing new training objectives that do not rely on the exact event times. In this paper, we propose a model to estimate the parameters of a Hawkes process in interval-censored settings. Our model builds upon the existing Hawkes Intensity Process (HIP) of in several important directions. First, we observe that while HIP is formulated in terms of expected intensities, it is more natural to work instead with expected counts; further, one can express the latter as the solution to an integral equation closely related to the defining equation of HIP. Second, we show how a non-homogeneous Poisson approximation to the Hawkes process admits a tractable likelihood in the interval-censored setting; this approximation recovers the original HIP objective as a special case, and allows for the use of a broader class of Bregman divergences as loss function. Third, we explicate how to compute a tighter approximation to the ground truth in the likelihood. Finally, we show how our model can incorporate information about varying interval lengths. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data confirm our HIPPer model outperforms HIP and several other baselines on the task of interval-censored inference.