AHP: Learning to Negative Sample for Hyperedge Prediction

Hypergraphs (i.e., sets of hyperedges) naturally represent group relations (e.g., researchers co-authoring a paper and ingredients used together in a recipe), each of which corresponds to a hyperedge (i.e., a subset of nodes). Predicting future or missing hyperedges bears significant implications for many applications (e.g., collaboration and recipe recommendation). What makes hyperedge prediction particularly challenging is the vast number of non-hyperedge subsets, which grows exponentially with the number of nodes. Since it is prohibitive to use all of them as negative examples for model training, it is inevitable to sample a very small portion of them, and to this end, heuristic sampling schemes have been employed. However, trained models suffer from poor generalization capability for examples of different natures. In this paper, we propose AHP, an adversarial training-based hyperedge-prediction method. It learns to sample negative examples without relying on any heuristic schemes. Using six real hypergraphs, we show that AHP generalizes better to negative examples of various natures. It yields up to 28.2% higher AUROC than the best existing methods and often even outperforms its variants with sampling schemes tailored to test sets.

Effective Training Strategies for Deep-learning-based Precipitation Nowcasting and Estimation

Deep learning has been successfully applied to precipitation nowcasting. In this work, we propose a pre-training scheme and a new loss function for improving deep-learning-based nowcasting. First, we adapt U-Net, a widely-used deep-learning model, for the two problems of interest here: precipitation nowcasting and precipitation estimation from radar images. We formulate the former as a classification problem with three precipitation intervals and the latter as a regression problem. For these tasks, we propose to pre-train the model to predict radar images in the near future without requiring ground-truth precipitation, and we also propose the use of a new loss function for fine-tuning to mitigate the class imbalance problem. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using radar images and precipitation datasets collected from South Korea over seven years. It is highlighted that our pre-training scheme and new loss function improve the critical success index (CSI) of nowcasting of heavy rainfall (at least 10 mm/hr) by up to 95.7% and 43.6%, respectively, at a 5-hr lead time. We also demonstrate that our approach reduces the precipitation estimation error by up to 10.7%, compared to the conventional approach, for light rainfall (between 1 and 10 mm/hr). Lastly, we report the sensitivity of our approach to different resolutions and a detailed analysis of four cases of heavy rainfall.