Systems with Switching Causal Relations: A Meta-Causal Perspective

Most work on causality in machine learning assumes that causal relationships are driven by a constant underlying process. However, the flexibility of agents' actions or tipping points in the environmental process can change the qualitative dynamics of the system. As a result, new causal relationships may emerge, while existing ones change or disappear, resulting in an altered causal graph. To analyze these qualitative changes on the causal graph, we propose the concept of meta-causal states, which groups classical causal models into clusters based on equivalent qualitative behavior and consolidates specific mechanism parameterizations. We demonstrate how meta-causal states can be inferred from observed agent behavior, and discuss potential methods for disentangling these states from unlabeled data. Finally, we direct our analysis towards the application of a dynamical system, showing that meta-causal states can also emerge from inherent system dynamics, and thus constitute more than a context-dependent framework in which mechanisms emerge only as a result of external factors.

Where is the Truth? The Risk of Getting Confounded in a Continual World

A dataset is confounded if it is most easily solved via a spurious correlation which fails to generalize to new data. We will show that, in a continual learning setting where confounders may vary in time across tasks, the resulting challenge far exceeds the standard forgetting problem normally considered. In particular, we derive mathematically the effect of such confounders on the space of valid joint solutions to sets of confounded tasks. Interestingly, our theory predicts that for many such continual datasets, spurious correlations are easily ignored when the tasks are trained on jointly, but it is far harder to avoid confounding when they are considered sequentially. We construct such a dataset and demonstrate empirically that standard continual learning methods fail to ignore confounders, while training jointly on all tasks is successful. Our continually confounded dataset, ConCon, is based on CLEVR images and demonstrates the need for continual learning methods with more robust behavior with respect to confounding.

Continual Causal Abstractions

This short paper discusses continually updated causal abstractions as a potential direction of future research. The key idea is to revise the existing level of causal abstraction to a different level of detail that is both consistent with the history of observed data and more effective in solving a given task.

Attributions Beyond Neural Networks: The Linear Program Case

Linear Programs (LPs) have been one of the building blocks in machine learning and have championed recent strides in differentiable optimizers for learning systems. While there exist solvers for even high-dimensional LPs, understanding said high-dimensional solutions poses an orthogonal and unresolved problem. We introduce an approach where we consider neural encodings for LPs that justify the application of attribution methods from explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) designed for neural learning systems. The several encoding functions we propose take into account aspects such as feasibility of the decision space, the cost attached to each input, or the distance to special points of interest. We investigate the mathematical consequences of several XAI methods on said neural LP encodings. We empirically show that the attribution methods Saliency and LIME reveal indistinguishable results up to perturbation levels, and we propose the property of Directedness as the main discriminative criterion between Saliency and LIME on one hand, and a perturbation-based Feature Permutation approach on the other hand. Directedness indicates whether an attribution method gives feature attributions with respect to an increase of that feature. We further notice the baseline selection problem beyond the classical computer vision setting for Integrated Gradients.

Finding Structure and Causality in Linear Programs

Linear Programs (LP) are celebrated widely, particularly so in machine learning where they have allowed for effectively solving probabilistic inference tasks or imposing structure on end-to-end learning systems. Their potential might seem depleted but we propose a foundational, causal perspective that reveals intriguing intra- and inter-structure relations for LP components. We conduct a systematic, empirical investigation on general-, shortest path- and energy system LPs.