AI for Extreme Event Modeling and Understanding: Methodologies and Challenges

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However, the latter comes with specific challenges, such as developing accurate predictors from noisy, heterogeneous and limited annotated data. This paper reviews how AI is being used to analyze extreme events (like floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves), highlighting the importance of creating accurate, transparent, and reliable AI models. We discuss the hurdles of dealing with limited data, integrating information in real-time, deploying models, and making them understandable, all crucial for gaining the trust of stakeholders and meeting regulatory needs. We provide an overview of how AI can help identify and explain extreme events more effectively, improving disaster response and communication. We emphasize the need for collaboration across different fields to create AI solutions that are practical, understandable, and trustworthy for analyzing and predicting extreme events. Such collaborative efforts aim to enhance disaster readiness and disaster risk reduction.

DeepExtremeCubes: Integrating Earth system spatio-temporal data for impact assessment of climate extremes

With climate extremes' rising frequency and intensity, robust analytical tools are crucial to predict their impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Machine learning techniques show promise but require well-structured, high-quality, and curated analysis-ready datasets. Earth observation datasets comprehensively monitor ecosystem dynamics and responses to climatic extremes, yet the data complexity can challenge the effectiveness of machine learning models. Despite recent progress in deep learning to ecosystem monitoring, there is a need for datasets specifically designed to analyse compound heatwave and drought extreme impact. Here, we introduce the DeepExtremeCubes database, tailored to map around these extremes, focusing on persistent natural vegetation. It comprises over 40,000 spatially sampled small data cubes (i.e. minicubes) globally, with a spatial coverage of 2.5 by 2.5 km. Each minicube includes (i) Sentinel-2 L2A images, (ii) ERA5-Land variables and generated extreme event cube covering 2016 to 2022, and (iii) ancillary land cover and topography maps. The paper aims to (1) streamline data accessibility, structuring, pre-processing, and enhance scientific reproducibility, and (2) facilitate biosphere dynamics forecasting in response to compound extremes.

Forecasting localized weather impacts on vegetation as seen from space with meteo-guided video prediction

We present a novel approach for modeling vegetation response to weather in Europe as measured by the Sentinel 2 satellite. Existing satellite imagery forecasting approaches focus on photorealistic quality of the multispectral images, while derived vegetation dynamics have not yet received as much attention. We leverage both spatial and temporal context by extending state-of-the-art video prediction methods with weather guidance. We extend the EarthNet2021 dataset to be suitable for vegetation modeling by introducing a learned cloud mask and an appropriate evaluation scheme. Qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate superior performance of our approach over a wide variety of baseline methods, including leading approaches to satellite imagery forecasting. Additionally, we show how our modeled vegetation dynamics can be leveraged in a downstream task: inferring gross primary productivity for carbon monitoring. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first models for continental-scale vegetation modeling at fine resolution able to capture anomalies beyond the seasonal cycle, thereby paving the way for predictive assessments of vegetation status.

Learning to forecast vegetation greenness at fine resolution over Africa with ConvLSTMs

Forecasting the state of vegetation in response to climate and weather events is a major challenge. Its implementation will prove crucial in predicting crop yield, forest damage, or more generally the impact on ecosystems services relevant for socio-economic functioning, which if absent can lead to humanitarian disasters. Vegetation status depends on weather and environmental conditions that modulate complex ecological processes taking place at several timescales. Interactions between vegetation and different environmental drivers express responses at instantaneous but also time-lagged effects, often showing an emerging spatial context at landscape and regional scales. We formulate the land surface forecasting task as a strongly guided video prediction task where the objective is to forecast the vegetation developing at very fine resolution using topography and weather variables to guide the prediction. We use a Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) architecture to address this task and predict changes in the vegetation state in Africa using Sentinel-2 satellite NDVI, having ERA5 weather reanalysis, SMAP satellite measurements, and topography (DEM of SRTMv4.1) as variables to guide the prediction. Ours results highlight how ConvLSTM models can not only forecast the seasonal evolution of NDVI at high resolution, but also the differential impacts of weather anomalies over the baselines. The model is able to predict different vegetation types, even those with very high NDVI variability during target length, which is promising to support anticipatory actions in the context of drought-related disasters.