Limit Order Book Simulation and Trade Evaluation with $K$-Nearest-Neighbor Resampling

In this paper, we show how $K$-nearest neighbor ($K$-NN) resampling, an off-policy evaluation method proposed in \cite{giegrich2023k}, can be applied to simulate limit order book (LOB) markets and how it can be used to evaluate and calibrate trading strategies. Using historical LOB data, we demonstrate that our simulation method is capable of recreating realistic LOB dynamics and that synthetic trading within the simulation leads to a market impact in line with the corresponding literature. Compared to other statistical LOB simulation methods, our algorithm has theoretical convergence guarantees under general conditions, does not require optimization, is easy to implement and computationally efficient. Furthermore, we show that in a benchmark comparison our method outperforms a deep learning-based algorithm for several key statistics. In the context of a LOB with pro-rata type matching, we demonstrate how our algorithm can calibrate the size of limit orders for a liquidation strategy. Finally, we describe how $K$-NN resampling can be modified for choices of higher dimensional state spaces.

$K$-Nearest-Neighbor Resampling for Off-Policy Evaluation in Stochastic Control

We propose a novel $K$-nearest neighbor resampling procedure for estimating the performance of a policy from historical data containing realized episodes of a decision process generated under a different policy. We focus on feedback policies that depend deterministically on the current state in environments with continuous state-action spaces and system-inherent stochasticity effected by chosen actions. Such settings are common in a wide range of high-stake applications and are actively investigated in the context of stochastic control. Our procedure exploits that similar state/action pairs (in a metric sense) are associated with similar rewards and state transitions. This enables our resampling procedure to tackle the counterfactual estimation problem underlying off-policy evaluation (OPE) by simulating trajectories similarly to Monte Carlo methods. Compared to other OPE methods, our algorithm does not require optimization, can be efficiently implemented via tree-based nearest neighbor search and parallelization and does not explicitly assume a parametric model for the environment's dynamics. These properties make the proposed resampling algorithm particularly useful for stochastic control environments. We prove that our method is statistically consistent in estimating the performance of a policy in the OPE setting under weak assumptions and for data sets containing entire episodes rather than independent transitions. To establish the consistency, we generalize Stone's Theorem, a well-known result in nonparametric statistics on local averaging, to include episodic data and the counterfactual estimation underlying OPE. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm in a variety of stochastic control settings including a linear quadratic regulator, trade execution in limit order books and online stochastic bin packing.

Convergence of policy gradient methods for finite-horizon stochastic linear-quadratic control problems

We study the global linear convergence of policy gradient (PG) methods for finite-horizon exploratory linear-quadratic control (LQC) problems. The setting includes stochastic LQC problems with indefinite costs and allows additional entropy regularisers in the objective. We consider a continuous-time Gaussian policy whose mean is linear in the state variable and whose covariance is state-independent. Contrary to discrete-time problems, the cost is noncoercive in the policy and not all descent directions lead to bounded iterates. We propose geometry-aware gradient descents for the mean and covariance of the policy using the Fisher geometry and the Bures-Wasserstein geometry, respectively. The policy iterates are shown to satisfy an a-priori bound, and converge globally to the optimal policy with a linear rate. We further propose a novel PG method with discrete-time policies. The algorithm leverages the continuous-time analysis, and achieves a robust linear convergence across different action frequencies. A numerical experiment confirms the convergence and robustness of the proposed algorithm.

Hedging option books using neural-SDE market models

We study the capability of arbitrage-free neural-SDE market models to yield effective strategies for hedging options. In particular, we derive sensitivity-based and minimum-variance-based hedging strategies using these models and examine their performance when applied to various option portfolios using real-world data. Through backtesting analysis over typical and stressed market periods, we show that neural-SDE market models achieve lower hedging errors than Black--Scholes delta and delta-vega hedging consistently over time, and are less sensitive to the tenor choice of hedging instruments. In addition, hedging using market models leads to similar performance to hedging using Heston models, while the former tends to be more robust during stressed market periods.

Linear convergence of a policy gradient method for finite horizon continuous time stochastic control problems

Despite its popularity in the reinforcement learning community, a provably convergent policy gradient method for general continuous space-time stochastic control problems has been elusive. This paper closes the gap by proposing a proximal gradient algorithm for feedback controls of finite-time horizon stochastic control problems. The state dynamics are continuous time nonlinear diffusions with controlled drift and possibly degenerate noise, and the objectives are nonconvex in the state and nonsmooth in the control. We prove under suitable conditions that the algorithm converges linearly to a stationary point of the control problem, and is stable with respect to policy updates by approximate gradient steps. The convergence result justifies the recent reinforcement learning heuristics that adding entropy regularization to the optimization objective accelerates the convergence of policy gradient methods. The proof exploits careful regularity estimates of backward stochastic differential equations.

Estimating risks of option books using neural-SDE market models

In this paper, we examine the capacity of an arbitrage-free neural-SDE market model to produce realistic scenarios for the joint dynamics of multiple European options on a single underlying. We subsequently demonstrate its use as a risk simulation engine for option portfolios. Through backtesting analysis, we show that our models are more computationally efficient and accurate for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of option portfolios, with better coverage performance and less procyclicality than standard filtered historical simulation approaches.

Arbitrage-free neural-SDE market models

Modelling joint dynamics of liquid vanilla options is crucial for arbitrage-free pricing of illiquid derivatives and managing risks of option trade books. This paper develops a nonparametric model for the European options book respecting underlying financial constraints and while being practically implementable. We derive a state space for prices which are free from static (or model-independent) arbitrage and study the inference problem where a model is learnt from discrete time series data of stock and option prices. We use neural networks as function approximators for the drift and diffusion of the modelled SDE system, and impose constraints on the neural nets such that no-arbitrage conditions are preserved. In particular, we give methods to calibrate \textit{neural SDE} models which are guaranteed to satisfy a set of linear inequalities. We validate our approach with numerical experiments using data generated from a Heston stochastic local volatility model.

Understanding Deep Architectures with Reasoning Layer

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in combining deep learning models with reasoning in order to handle more sophisticated learning tasks. In many cases, a reasoning task can be solved by an iterative algorithm. This algorithm is often unrolled, and used as a specialized layer in the deep architecture, which can be trained end-to-end with other neural components. Although such hybrid deep architectures have led to many empirical successes, the theoretical foundation of such architectures, especially the interplay between algorithm layers and other neural layers, remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we take an initial step towards an understanding of such hybrid deep architectures by showing that properties of the algorithm layers, such as convergence, stability, and sensitivity, are intimately related to the approximation and generalization abilities of the end-to-end model. Furthermore, our analysis matches closely our experimental observations under various conditions, suggesting that our theory can provide useful guidelines for designing deep architectures with reasoning layers.

Regularity and stability of feedback relaxed controls

This paper proposes a relaxed control regularization with general exploration rewards to design robust feedback controls for multi-dimensional continuous-time stochastic exit time problems. We establish that the regularized control problem admits a H\"{o}lder continuous feedback control, and demonstrate that both the value function and the feedback control of the regularized control problem are Lipschitz stable with respect to parameter perturbations. Moreover, we show that a pre-computed feedback relaxed control has a robust performance in a perturbed system, and derive a first-order sensitivity equation for both the value function and optimal feedback relaxed control. We finally prove first-order monotone convergence of the value functions for relaxed control problems with vanishing exploration parameters, which subsequently enables us to construct the pure exploitation strategy of the original control problem based on the feedback relaxed controls.

A neural network based policy iteration algorithm with global $H^2$-superlinear convergence for stochastic games on domains

In this work, we propose a class of numerical schemes for solving semilinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs (HJBI) boundary value problems which arise naturally from exit time problems of diffusion processes with controlled drift. We exploit policy iteration to reduce the semilinear problem into a sequence of linear Dirichlet problems, which are subsequently approximated by a multilayer feedforward neural network ansatz. We establish that the numerical solutions converge globally in the $H^2$-norm, and further demonstrate that this convergence is superlinear, by interpreting the algorithm as an inexact Newton iteration for the HJBI equation. Moreover, we construct the optimal feedback controls from the numerical value functions and deduce convergence. The numerical schemes and convergence results are then extended to HJBI boundary value problems corresponding to controlled diffusion processes with oblique boundary reflection. Numerical experiments on the stochastic Zermelo navigation problem are presented to illustrate the theoretical results and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.