Prompting Underestimates LLM Capability for Time Series Classification

Prompt-based evaluations suggest that large language models (LLMs) perform poorly on time series classification, raising doubts about whether they encode meaningful temporal structure. We show that this conclusion reflects limitations of prompt-based generation rather than the model's representational capacity by directly comparing prompt outputs with linear probes over the same internal representations. While zero-shot prompting performs near chance, linear probes improve average F1 from 0.15-0.26 to 0.61-0.67, often matching or exceeding specialized time series models. Layer-wise analyses further show that class-discriminative time series information emerges in early transformer layers and is amplified by visual and multimodal inputs. Together, these results demonstrate a systematic mismatch between what LLMs internally represent and what prompt-based evaluation reveals, leading current evaluations to underestimate their time series understanding.

Can We Reliably Rank Model Performance across Domains without Labeled Data?

Estimating model performance without labels is an important goal for understanding how NLP models generalize. While prior work has proposed measures based on dataset similarity or predicted correctness, it remains unclear when these estimates produce reliable performance rankings across domains. In this paper, we analyze the factors that affect ranking reliability using a two-step evaluation setup with four base classifiers and several large language models as error predictors. Experiments on the GeoOLID and Amazon Reviews datasets, spanning 15 domains, show that large language model-based error predictors produce stronger and more consistent rank correlations with true accuracy than drift-based or zero-shot baselines. Our analysis reveals two key findings: ranking is more reliable when performance differences across domains are larger, and when the error model's predictions align with the base model's true failure patterns. These results clarify when performance estimation methods can be trusted and provide guidance for their use in cross-domain model evaluation.

Reflective Agreement: Combining Self-Mixture of Agents with a Sequence Tagger for Robust Event Extraction

Event Extraction (EE) involves automatically identifying and extracting structured information about events from unstructured text, including triggers, event types, and arguments. Traditional discriminative models demonstrate high precision but often exhibit limited recall, particularly for nuanced or infrequent events. Conversely, generative approaches leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) provide higher semantic flexibility and recall but suffer from hallucinations and inconsistent predictions. To address these challenges, we propose Agreement-based Reflective Inference System (ARIS), a hybrid approach combining a Self Mixture of Agents with a discriminative sequence tagger. ARIS explicitly leverages structured model consensus, confidence-based filtering, and an LLM reflective inference module to reliably resolve ambiguities and enhance overall event prediction quality. We further investigate decomposed instruction fine-tuning for enhanced LLM event extraction understanding. Experiments demonstrate our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art event extraction methods across three benchmark datasets.

Does It Run and Is That Enough? Revisiting Text-to-Chart Generation with a Multi-Agent Approach

Large language models can translate natural-language chart descriptions into runnable code, yet approximately 15\% of the generated scripts still fail to execute, even after supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. We investigate whether this persistent error rate stems from model limitations or from reliance on a single-prompt design. To explore this, we propose a lightweight multi-agent pipeline that separates drafting, execution, repair, and judgment, using only an off-the-shelf GPT-4o-mini model. On the \textsc{Text2Chart31} benchmark, our system reduces execution errors to 4.5\% within three repair iterations, outperforming the strongest fine-tuned baseline by nearly 5 percentage points while requiring significantly less compute. Similar performance is observed on the \textsc{ChartX} benchmark, with an error rate of 4.6\%, demonstrating strong generalization. Under current benchmarks, execution success appears largely solved. However, manual review reveals that 6 out of 100 sampled charts contain hallucinations, and an LLM-based accessibility audit shows that only 33.3\% (\textsc{Text2Chart31}) and 7.2\% (\textsc{ChartX}) of generated charts satisfy basic colorblindness guidelines. These findings suggest that future work should shift focus from execution reliability toward improving chart aesthetics, semantic fidelity, and accessibility.

UTSA-NLP at ArchEHR-QA 2025: Improving EHR Question Answering via Self-Consistency Prompting

We describe our system for the ArchEHR-QA Shared Task on answering clinical questions using electronic health records (EHRs). Our approach uses large language models in two steps: first, to find sentences in the EHR relevant to a clinician's question, and second, to generate a short, citation-supported response based on those sentences. We use few-shot prompting, self-consistency, and thresholding to improve the sentence classification step to decide which sentences are essential. We compare several models and find that a smaller 8B model performs better than a larger 70B model for identifying relevant information. Our results show that accurate sentence selection is critical for generating high-quality responses and that self-consistency with thresholding helps make these decisions more reliable.

Charting the Future: Using Chart Question-Answering for Scalable Evaluation of LLM-Driven Data Visualizations

We propose a novel framework that leverages Visual Question Answering (VQA) models to automate the evaluation of LLM-generated data visualizations. Traditional evaluation methods often rely on human judgment, which is costly and unscalable, or focus solely on data accuracy, neglecting the effectiveness of visual communication. By employing VQA models, we assess data representation quality and the general communicative clarity of charts. Experiments were conducted using two leading VQA benchmark datasets, ChartQA and PlotQA, with visualizations generated by OpenAI's GPT-3.5 Turbo and Meta's Llama 3.1 70B-Instruct models. Our results indicate that LLM-generated charts do not match the accuracy of the original non-LLM-generated charts based on VQA performance measures. Moreover, while our results demonstrate that few-shot prompting significantly boosts the accuracy of chart generation, considerable progress remains to be made before LLMs can fully match the precision of human-generated graphs. This underscores the importance of our work, which expedites the research process by enabling rapid iteration without the need for human annotation, thus accelerating advancements in this field.

Improving LLM Reasoning with Multi-Agent Tree-of-Thought Validator Agent

Multi-agent strategies have emerged as a promising approach to enhance the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by assigning specialized roles in the problem-solving process. Concurrently, Tree of Thoughts (ToT) methods have shown potential in improving reasoning for complex question-answering tasks by exploring diverse reasoning paths. A critical limitation in multi-agent reasoning is the 'Reasoner' agent's shallow exploration of reasoning paths. While ToT strategies could help mitigate this problem, they may generate flawed reasoning branches, which could harm the trustworthiness of the final answer. To leverage the strengths of both multi-agent reasoning and ToT strategies, we introduce a novel approach combining ToT-based Reasoner agents with a Thought Validator agent. Multiple Reasoner agents operate in parallel, employing ToT to explore diverse reasoning paths. The Thought Validator then scrutinizes these paths, considering a Reasoner's conclusion only if its reasoning is valid. This method enables a more robust voting strategy by discarding faulty reasoning paths, enhancing the system's ability to tackle tasks requiring systematic and trustworthy reasoning. Our method demonstrates superior performance compared to existing techniques when evaluated on the GSM8K dataset, outperforming the standard ToT strategy by an average 5.6\% across four LLMs.

Enhancing Event Reasoning in Large Language Models through Instruction Fine-Tuning with Semantic Causal Graphs

Event detection and text reasoning have become critical applications across various domains. While LLMs have recently demonstrated impressive progress in reasoning abilities, they often struggle with event detection, particularly due to the absence of training methods that consider causal relationships between event triggers and types. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach for instruction fine-tuning LLMs for event detection. Our method introduces Semantic Causal Graphs (SCGs) to capture both causal relationships and contextual information within text. Building off of SCGs, we propose SCG Instructions for fine-tuning LLMs by focusing on event triggers and their relationships to event types, and employ Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to help preserve the general reasoning abilities of LLMs. Our evaluations demonstrate that training LLMs with SCG Instructions outperforms standard instruction fine-tuning by an average of 35.69\% on Event Trigger Classification. Notably, our fine-tuned Mistral 7B model also outperforms GPT-4 on key event detection metrics by an average of 31.01\% on Event Trigger Identification, 37.40\% on Event Trigger Classification, and 16.43\% on Event Classification. We analyze the retention of general capabilities, observing only a minimal average drop of 2.03 points across six benchmarks. This comprehensive study investigates multiple LLMs for the event detection task across various datasets, prompting strategies, and training approaches.

Context Matters: An Empirical Study of the Impact of Contextual Information in Temporal Question Answering Systems

Large language models (LLMs) often struggle with temporal reasoning, crucial for tasks like historical event analysis and time-sensitive information retrieval. Despite advancements, state-of-the-art models falter in handling temporal information, especially when faced with irrelevant or noisy contexts. This paper addresses this gap by empirically examining the robustness of temporal question-answering (TQA) systems trained on various context types, including relevant, irrelevant, slightly altered, and no context. Our findings indicate that training with a mix of these contexts enhances model robustness and accuracy. Additionally, we show that the position of context relative to the question significantly impacts performance, with question-first positioning yielding better results. We introduce two new context-rich TQA datasets, ContextAQA and ContextTQE, and provide comprehensive evaluations and guidelines for training robust TQA models. Our work lays the foundation for developing reliable and context-aware temporal QA systems, with broader implications for enhancing LLM robustness against diverse and potentially adversarial information.

Beyond Text-to-SQL for IoT Defense: A Comprehensive Framework for Querying and Classifying IoT Threats

Recognizing the promise of natural language interfaces to databases, prior studies have emphasized the development of text-to-SQL systems. While substantial progress has been made in this field, existing research has concentrated on generating SQL statements from text queries. The broader challenge, however, lies in inferring new information about the returned data. Our research makes two major contributions to address this gap. First, we introduce a novel Internet-of-Things (IoT) text-to-SQL dataset comprising 10,985 text-SQL pairs and 239,398 rows of network traffic activity. The dataset contains additional query types limited in prior text-to-SQL datasets, notably temporal-related queries. Our dataset is sourced from a smart building's IoT ecosystem exploring sensor read and network traffic data. Second, our dataset allows two-stage processing, where the returned data (network traffic) from a generated SQL can be categorized as malicious or not. Our results show that joint training to query and infer information about the data can improve overall text-to-SQL performance, nearly matching substantially larger models. We also show that current large language models (e.g., GPT3.5) struggle to infer new information about returned data, thus our dataset provides a novel test bed for integrating complex domain-specific reasoning into LLMs.