Large Scale Hierarchical Industrial Demand Time-Series Forecasting incorporating Sparsity

Hierarchical time-series forecasting (HTSF) is an important problem for many real-world business applications where the goal is to simultaneously forecast multiple time-series that are related to each other via a hierarchical relation. Recent works, however, do not address two important challenges that are typically observed in many demand forecasting applications at large companies. First, many time-series at lower levels of the hierarchy have high sparsity i.e., they have a significant number of zeros. Most HTSF methods do not address this varying sparsity across the hierarchy. Further, they do not scale well to the large size of the real-world hierarchy typically unseen in benchmarks used in literature. We resolve both these challenges by proposing HAILS, a novel probabilistic hierarchical model that enables accurate and calibrated probabilistic forecasts across the hierarchy by adaptively modeling sparse and dense time-series with different distributional assumptions and reconciling them to adhere to hierarchical constraints. We show the scalability and effectiveness of our methods by evaluating them against real-world demand forecasting datasets. We deploy HAILS at a large chemical manufacturing company for a product demand forecasting application with over ten thousand products and observe a significant 8.5\% improvement in forecast accuracy and 23% better improvement for sparse time-series. The enhanced accuracy and scalability make HAILS a valuable tool for improved business planning and customer experience.

Time-MMD: A New Multi-Domain Multimodal Dataset for Time Series Analysis

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potential of textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the first multi-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains. Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, the first multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipelining multimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensive experiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality, evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40% in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and library revolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. The dataset and library are available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD and https://github.com/AdityaLab/MM-TSFlib.