Nonparametric End-to-End Probabilistic Forecasting of Distributed Generation Outputs Considering Missing Data Imputation

In this paper, we introduce a nonparametric end-to-end method for probabilistic forecasting of distributed renewable generation outputs while including missing data imputation. Firstly, we employ a nonparametric probabilistic forecast model utilizing the long short-term memory (LSTM) network to model the probability distributions of distributed renewable generations' outputs. Secondly, we design an end-to-end training process that includes missing data imputation through iterative imputation and iterative loss-based training procedures. This two-step modeling approach effectively combines the strengths of the nonparametric method with the end-to-end approach. Consequently, our approach demonstrates exceptional capabilities in probabilistic forecasting for the outputs of distributed renewable generations while effectively handling missing values. Simulation results confirm the superior performance of our approach compared to existing alternatives.

An Evolutionary Algorithm for Error-Driven Learning via Reinforcement

Although different learning systems are coordinated to afford complex behavior, little is known about how this occurs. This article describes a theoretical framework that specifies how complex behaviors that might be thought to require error-driven learning might instead be acquired through simple reinforcement. This framework includes specific assumptions about the mechanisms that contribute to the evolution of (artificial) neural networks to generate topologies that allow the networks to learn large-scale complex problems using only information about the quality of their performance. The practical and theoretical implications of the framework are discussed, as are possible biological analogs of the approach.