SMA-Hyper: Spatiotemporal Multi-View Fusion Hypergraph Learning for Traffic Accident Prediction

Predicting traffic accidents is the key to sustainable city management, which requires effective address of the dynamic and complex spatiotemporal characteristics of cities. Current data-driven models often struggle with data sparsity and typically overlook the integration of diverse urban data sources and the high-order dependencies within them. Additionally, they frequently rely on predefined topologies or weights, limiting their adaptability in spatiotemporal predictions. To address these issues, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Multiview Adaptive HyperGraph Learning (SMA-Hyper) model, a dynamic deep learning framework designed for traffic accident prediction. Building on previous research, this innovative model incorporates dual adaptive spatiotemporal graph learning mechanisms that enable high-order cross-regional learning through hypergraphs and dynamic adaptation to evolving urban data. It also utilises contrastive learning to enhance global and local data representations in sparse datasets and employs an advance attention mechanism to fuse multiple views of accident data and urban functional features, thereby enriching the contextual understanding of risk factors. Extensive testing on the London traffic accident dataset demonstrates that the SMA-Hyper model significantly outperforms baseline models across various temporal horizons and multistep outputs, affirming the effectiveness of its multiview fusion and adaptive learning strategies. The interpretability of the results further underscores its potential to improve urban traffic management and safety by leveraging complex spatiotemporal urban data, offering a scalable framework adaptable to diverse urban environments.

Uncertainty Quantification via Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Model for Zero-inflated and Long-tail Travel Demand Prediction

crucial for transportation management. However, traditional spatial-temporal deep learning models grapple with addressing the sparse and long-tail characteristics in high-resolution O-D matrices and quantifying prediction uncertainty. This dilemma arises from the numerous zeros and over-dispersed demand patterns within these matrices, which challenge the Gaussian assumption inherent to deterministic deep learning models. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach: the Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Graph Neural Network (STTD). The STTD introduces the Tweedie distribution as a compelling alternative to the traditional 'zero-inflated' model and leverages spatial and temporal embeddings to parameterize travel demand distributions. Our evaluations using real-world datasets highlight STTD's superiority in providing accurate predictions and precise confidence intervals, particularly in high-resolution scenarios.