Information theory unifies atomistic machine learning, uncertainty quantification, and materials thermodynamics

An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic modeling, such as sampling methods, detecting rare events, analyzing datasets, or performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning (ML)-driven simulations. Although individual methods have been proposed for each of these tasks, they lack a common theoretical background integrating their solutions. Here, we introduce an information theoretical framework that unifies predictions of phase transformations, kinetic events, dataset optimality, and model-free UQ from atomistic simulations, thus bridging materials modeling, ML, and statistical mechanics. We first demonstrate that, for a proposed representation, the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments is a surrogate value for thermodynamic entropy. Using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we show that information entropy differences from trajectories can be used to build phase diagrams, identify rare events, and recover classical theories of nucleation. Building on these results, we use this general concept of entropy to quantify information in datasets for ML interatomic potentials (IPs), informing compression, explaining trends in testing errors, and evaluating the efficiency of active learning strategies. Finally, we propose a model-free UQ method for MLIPs using information entropy, showing it reliably detects extrapolation regimes, scales to millions of atoms, and goes beyond model errors. This method is made available as the package QUESTS: Quick Uncertainty and Entropy via STructural Similarity, providing a new unifying theory for data-driven atomistic modeling and combining efforts in ML, first-principles thermodynamics, and simulations.

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in Atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are simple and effective tools for estimating the prediction uncertainty of deep learning atomistic force fields. Despite this, widespread adoption of ensemble-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques is limited by the high computational costs incurred by ensembles during both training and inference. In this work we leverage the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of per-sample errors obtained over the course of training to efficiently represent the model ensemble, and couple them with a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Using these tools, we develop a simple UQ metric (which we call LTAU) that leverages the strengths of ensemble-based techniques without requiring the evaluation of multiple models during either training or inference. As an initial test, we apply our method towards estimating the epistemic uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF) and demonstrate that it can be easily calibrated to accurately predict test errors on multiple datasets from the literature. We then illustrate the utility of LTAU-FF in two practical applications: 1) tuning the training-validation gap for an example dataset, and 2) predicting errors in relaxation trajectories on the OC20 IS2RS task. Though in this work we focus on the use of LTAU with deep learning atomistic force fields, we emphasize that it can be readily applied to any regression task, or any ensemble-generation technique, to provide a reliable and easy-to-implement UQ metric.