Efficient Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models via Knowledge Distillation

Quantifying uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for mitigating hallucinations and enabling risk-aware deployment in safety-critical tasks. However, estimating Epistemic Uncertainty(EU) via Deep Ensembles is computationally prohibitive at the scale of modern models. We propose a framework that leverages the small draft models to efficiently estimate token-level EU, bypassing the need for full-scale ensembling. Theoretically grounded in a Bias-Variance Decomposition, our approach approximates EU via Jensen-Shannon divergence among drafts (variance proxy) and KL divergence between the draft mixture and the target (bias proxy). To further ensure accuracy without significant overhead, we introduce Online Stochastic Distillation (OSD) to efficiently approximate target aggregation and the Data-Diverse Drafts (DDD) strategy to enhance draft diversity for better target approximation. Extensive experiments on GSM8K demonstrate that our method reduces the estimation error (RMSE) by up to 37% compared to baselines. Crucially, our approach achieves Hallucination Detection performance competitive with heavy perturbation-based methods like TokUR while incurring negligible inference costs, offering a practical solution for uncertainty-aware LLM deployment.

Robust Domain Generalization under Divergent Marginal and Conditional Distributions

Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn predictive models that can generalize to unseen domains. Most existing DG approaches focus on learning domain-invariant representations under the assumption of conditional distribution shift (i.e., primarily addressing changes in $P(X\mid Y)$ while assuming $P(Y)$ remains stable). However, real-world scenarios with multiple domains often involve compound distribution shifts where both the marginal label distribution $P(Y)$ and the conditional distribution $P(X\mid Y)$ vary simultaneously. To address this, we propose a unified framework for robust domain generalization under divergent marginal and conditional distributions. We derive a novel risk bound for unseen domains by explicitly decomposing the joint distribution into marginal and conditional components and characterizing risk gaps arising from both sources of divergence. To operationalize this bound, we design a meta-learning procedure that minimizes and validates the proposed risk bound across seen domains, ensuring strong generalization to unseen ones. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance not only on conventional DG benchmarks but also in challenging multi-domain long-tailed recognition settings where both marginal and conditional shifts are pronounced.

Attention-space Contrastive Guidance for Efficient Hallucination Mitigation in LVLMs

Hallucinations in large vision-language models (LVLMs) often arise when language priors dominate over visual evidence, causing object misidentification and visually inconsistent descriptions. We address this issue by framing hallucination mitigation as contrastive guidance, steering generation toward visually grounded and semantically faithful text. This approach regulates the model's internal behavior by reducing over-dependence on language priors and contrasting visually grounded with language-only representations. We propose Attention-space Contrastive Guidance (ACG), a single-pass mechanism that operates within self-attention layers to construct both vision-language and language-only attention paths in a single forward computation. This integration enables computationally efficient guidance directly embedded in the model's representation contextualization. To correct approximation bias introduced by the single-pass formulation, we further apply an orthogonalized correction that removes components aligned with the language-only path, selectively amplifying visual contributions. Experiments on the CHAIR and POPE benchmarks show that ACG achieves state-of-the-art faithfulness and caption quality while significantly reducing computational cost. Our method establishes a principled and efficient alternative, reducing latency by up to 2x compared to prior contrastive decoding methods that require multiple forward passes.

What If TSF: A Benchmark for Reframing Forecasting as Scenario-Guided Multimodal Forecasting

Time series forecasting is critical to real-world decision making, yet most existing approaches remain unimodal and rely on extrapolating historical patterns. While recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the potential for multimodal forecasting, existing benchmarks largely provide retrospective or misaligned raw context, making it unclear whether such models meaningfully leverage textual inputs. In practice, human experts incorporate what-if scenarios with historical evidence, often producing distinct forecasts from the same observations under different scenarios. Inspired by this, we introduce What If TSF (WIT), a multimodal forecasting benchmark designed to evaluate whether models can condition their forecasts on contextual text, especially future scenarios. By providing expert-crafted plausible or counterfactual scenarios, WIT offers a rigorous testbed for scenario-guided multimodal forecasting. The benchmark is available at https://github.com/jinkwan1115/WhatIfTSF.

Stable On-Policy Distillation through Adaptive Target Reformulation

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a widely adopted technique for transferring knowledge from large language models to smaller student models; however, conventional supervised KD often suffers from a distribution mismatch between training and inference. While on-policy KD approaches attempt to mitigate this issue by learning directly from student-generated outputs, they frequently encounter training instabilities because the distributional gap between the novice student and the expert teacher is often too wide to bridge directly. These challenges manifest as pathological gradients in forward KL objectives or diversity collapse in reverse KL regimes. To address these limitations, we propose Veto, an objective-level reformulation that constructs a geometric bridge in the logit space. Unlike prior methods that mix data samples, Veto creates an intermediate target distribution that promotes alignment between the teacher and the student. By introducing a tunable parameter beta, Veto serves as an Adaptive Gradient Veto that stabilizes optimization by suppressing harmful gradients on low-confidence tokens, while simultaneously acting as a Decisiveness Knob to balance reward-driven performance with output diversity. Extensive experiments across various reasoning and generation tasks demonstrate that Veto consistently outperforms supervised fine-tuning and existing on-policy baselines.

EpiCaR: Knowing What You Don't Know Matters for Better Reasoning in LLMs

Improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) has largely relied on iterative self-training with model-generated data. While effective at boosting accuracy, existing approaches primarily reinforce successful reasoning paths, incurring a substantial calibration cost: models become overconfident and lose the ability to represent uncertainty. This failure has been characterized as a form of model collapse in alignment, where predictive distributions degenerate toward low-variance point estimates. We address this issue by reframing reasoning training as an epistemic learning problem, in which models must learn not only how to reason, but also when their reasoning should be trusted. We propose epistemically-calibrated reasoning (EpiCaR) as a training objective that jointly optimizes reasoning performance and calibration, and instantiate it within an iterative supervised fine-tuning framework using explicit self-evaluation signals. Experiments on Llama-3 and Qwen-3 families demonstrate that our approach achieves Pareto-superiority over standard baselines in both accuracy and calibration, particularly in models with sufficient reasoning capacity (e.g., 3B+). This framework generalizes effectively to OOD mathematical reasoning (GSM8K) and code generation (MBPP). Ultimately, our approach enables a 3X reduction in inference compute, matching the K=30 performance of STaR with only K=10 samples in capable models.

Garbage Attention in Large Language Models: BOS Sink Heads and Sink-aware Pruning

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to contain significant redundancy, yet a systematic explanation for why certain components, particularly in higher layers, are more redundant has remained elusive. In this work, we identify the BOS sink phenomenon as a key mechanism driving this layer-wise sensitivity. We show that attention heads with high BOS sink scores are strongly associated with functional redundancy: such heads, especially in deeper layers, contribute little to predictive performance and effectively serve as \emph{dumping grounds} for superfluous attention weights. This provides a concrete functional explanation for the structural redundancy reported in prior studies. Leveraging this insight, we introduce a simple pruning strategy that removes high-BOS sink heads. Experiments on Gemma-3, Llama-3.1, and Qwen3 demonstrate that this approach identifies redundant transformer components more reliably than weight- or activation-based criteria, while preserving performance close to dense baselines even under aggressive pruning. Moreover, we find that the behavior of sink heads remains stable across different sequence lengths. Overall, our results suggest that structural properties of attention offer a more intuitive and robust basis for model compression than magnitude-based methods.

Learning to Act Robustly with View-Invariant Latent Actions

Vision-based robotic policies often struggle with even minor viewpoint changes, underscoring the need for view-invariant visual representations. This challenge becomes more pronounced in real-world settings, where viewpoint variability is unavoidable and can significantly disrupt policy performance. Existing methods typically learn invariance from multi-view observations at the scene level, but such approaches rely on visual appearance and fail to incorporate the physical dynamics essential for robust generalization. We propose View-Invariant Latent Action (VILA), which models a latent action capturing transition patterns across trajectories to learn view-invariant representations grounded in physical dynamics. VILA aligns these latent actions across viewpoints using an action-guided objective based on ground-truth action sequences. Experiments in both simulation and the real world show that VILA-based policies generalize effectively to unseen viewpoints and transfer well to new tasks, establishing VILA as a strong pretraining framework that improves robustness and downstream learning performance.

Angular Gradient Sign Method: Uncovering Vulnerabilities in Hyperbolic Networks

Adversarial examples in neural networks have been extensively studied in Euclidean geometry, but recent advances in \textit{hyperbolic networks} call for a reevaluation of attack strategies in non-Euclidean geometries. Existing methods such as FGSM and PGD apply perturbations without regard to the underlying hyperbolic structure, potentially leading to inefficient or geometrically inconsistent attacks. In this work, we propose a novel adversarial attack that explicitly leverages the geometric properties of hyperbolic space. Specifically, we compute the gradient of the loss function in the tangent space of hyperbolic space, decompose it into a radial (depth) component and an angular (semantic) component, and apply perturbation derived solely from the angular direction. Our method generates adversarial examples by focusing perturbations in semantically sensitive directions encoded in angular movement within the hyperbolic geometry. Empirical results on image classification, cross-modal retrieval tasks and network architectures demonstrate that our attack achieves higher fooling rates than conventional adversarial attacks, while producing high-impact perturbations with deeper insights into vulnerabilities of hyperbolic embeddings. This work highlights the importance of geometry-aware adversarial strategies in curved representation spaces and provides a principled framework for attacking hierarchical embeddings.

ATAS: Any-to-Any Self-Distillation for Enhanced Open-Vocabulary Dense Prediction

Vision-language models such as CLIP have recently propelled open-vocabulary dense prediction tasks by enabling recognition of a broad range of visual concepts. However, CLIP still struggles with fine-grained, region-level understanding, hindering its effectiveness on these dense prediction tasks. We identify two pivotal factors required to address this limitation: semantic coherence and fine-grained vision-language alignment. Current adaptation methods often improve fine-grained alignment at the expense of semantic coherence, and often rely on extra modules or supervised fine-tuning. To overcome these issues, we propose Any-to-Any Self-Distillation (ATAS), a novel approach that simultaneously enhances semantic coherence and fine-grained alignment by leveraging own knowledge of a model across all representation levels. Unlike prior methods, ATAS uses only unlabeled images and an internal self-distillation process to refine representations of CLIP vision encoders, preserving local semantic consistency while sharpening local detail recognition. On open-vocabulary object detection and semantic segmentation benchmarks, ATAS achieves substantial performance gains, outperforming baseline CLIP models. These results validate the effectiveness of our approach and underscore the importance of jointly maintaining semantic coherence and fine-grained alignment for advanced open-vocabulary dense prediction.