A Machine Learning Approach for Simultaneous Demapping of QAM and APSK Constellations

As telecommunication systems evolve to meet increasing demands, integrating deep neural networks (DNNs) has shown promise in enhancing performance. However, the trade-off between accuracy and flexibility remains challenging when replacing traditional receivers with DNNs. This paper introduces a novel probabilistic framework that allows a single DNN demapper to demap multiple QAM and APSK constellations simultaneously. We also demonstrate that our framework allows exploiting hierarchical relationships in families of constellations. The consequence is that we need fewer neural network outputs to encode the same function without an increase in Bit Error Rate (BER). Our simulation results confirm that our approach approaches the optimal demodulation error bound under an Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) channel for multiple constellations. Thereby, we address multiple important issues in making DNNs flexible enough for practical use as receivers.

Unveiling the Potential: Harnessing Deep Metric Learning to Circumvent Video Streaming Encryption

Encryption on the internet with the shift to HTTPS has been an important step to improve the privacy of internet users. However, there is an increasing body of work about extracting information from encrypted internet traffic without having to decrypt it. Such attacks bypass security guarantees assumed to be given by HTTPS and thus need to be understood. Prior works showed that the variable bitrates of video streams are sufficient to identify which video someone is watching. These works generally have to make trade-offs in aspects such as accuracy, scalability, robustness, etc. These trade-offs complicate the practical use of these attacks. To that end, we propose a deep metric learning framework based on the triplet loss method. Through this framework, we achieve robust, generalisable, scalable and transferable encrypted video stream detection. First, the triplet loss is better able to deal with video streams not seen during training. Second, our approach can accurately classify videos not seen during training. Third, we show that our method scales well to a dataset of over 1000 videos. Finally, we show that a model trained on video streams over Chrome can also classify streams over Firefox. Our results suggest that this side-channel attack is more broadly applicable than originally thought. We provide our code alongside a diverse and up-to-date dataset for future research.

The Berkelmans-Pries Feature Importance Method: A Generic Measure of Informativeness of Features

Over the past few years, the use of machine learning models has emerged as a generic and powerful means for prediction purposes. At the same time, there is a growing demand for interpretability of prediction models. To determine which features of a dataset are important to predict a target variable $Y$, a Feature Importance (FI) method can be used. By quantifying how important each feature is for predicting $Y$, irrelevant features can be identified and removed, which could increase the speed and accuracy of a model, and moreover, important features can be discovered, which could lead to valuable insights. A major problem with evaluating FI methods, is that the ground truth FI is often unknown. As a consequence, existing FI methods do not give the exact correct FI values. This is one of the many reasons why it can be hard to properly interpret the results of an FI method. Motivated by this, we introduce a new global approach named the Berkelmans-Pries FI method, which is based on a combination of Shapley values and the Berkelmans-Pries dependency function. We prove that our method has many useful properties, and accurately predicts the correct FI values for several cases where the ground truth FI can be derived in an exact manner. We experimentally show for a large collection of FI methods (468) that existing methods do not have the same useful properties. This shows that the Berkelmans-Pries FI method is a highly valuable tool for analyzing datasets with complex interdependencies.

The Optimal Input-Independent Baseline for Binary Classification: The Dutch Draw

Before any binary classification model is taken into practice, it is important to validate its performance on a proper test set. Without a frame of reference given by a baseline method, it is impossible to determine if a score is `good' or `bad'. The goal of this paper is to examine all baseline methods that are independent of feature values and determine which model is the `best' and why. By identifying which baseline models are optimal, a crucial selection decision in the evaluation process is simplified. We prove that the recently proposed Dutch Draw baseline is the best input-independent classifier (independent of feature values) for all positional-invariant measures (independent of sequence order) assuming that the samples are randomly shuffled. This means that the Dutch Draw baseline is the optimal baseline under these intuitive requirements and should therefore be used in practice.

The Dutch Draw: Constructing a Universal Baseline for Binary Prediction Models

Novel prediction methods should always be compared to a baseline to know how well they perform. Without this frame of reference, the performance score of a model is basically meaningless. What does it mean when a model achieves an $F_1$ of 0.8 on a test set? A proper baseline is needed to evaluate the `goodness' of a performance score. Comparing with the latest state-of-the-art model is usually insightful. However, being state-of-the-art can change rapidly when newer models are developed. Contrary to an advanced model, a simple dummy classifier could be used. However, the latter could be beaten too easily, making the comparison less valuable. This paper presents a universal baseline method for all binary classification models, named the Dutch Draw (DD). This approach weighs simple classifiers and determines the best classifier to use as a baseline. We theoretically derive the DD baseline for many commonly used evaluation measures and show that in most situations it reduces to (almost) always predicting either zero or one. Summarizing, the DD baseline is: (1) general, as it is applicable to all binary classification problems; (2) simple, as it is quickly determined without training or parameter-tuning; (3) informative, as insightful conclusions can be drawn from the results. The DD baseline serves two purposes. First, to enable comparisons across research papers by this robust and universal baseline. Secondly, to provide a sanity check during the development process of a prediction model. It is a major warning sign when a model is outperformed by the DD baseline.

The BP Dependency Function: a Generic Measure of Dependence between Random Variables

Measuring and quantifying dependencies between random variables (RV's) can give critical insights into a data-set. Typical questions are: `Do underlying relationships exist?', `Are some variables redundant?', and `Is some target variable $Y$ highly or weakly dependent on variable $X$?' Interestingly, despite the evident need for a general-purpose measure of dependency between RV's, common practice of data analysis is that most data analysts use the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) to quantify dependence between RV's, while it is well-recognized that the PCC is essentially a measure for linear dependency only. Although many attempts have been made to define more generic dependency measures, there is yet no consensus on a standard, general-purpose dependency function. In fact, several ideal properties of a dependency function have been proposed, but without much argumentation. Motivated by this, in this paper we will discuss and revise the list of desired properties and propose a new dependency function that meets all these requirements. This general-purpose dependency function provides data analysts a powerful means to quantify the level of dependence between variables. To this end, we also provide Python code to determine the dependency function for use in practice.

Jasmine: A New Active Learning Approach to Combat Cybercrime

Over the past decade, the advent of cybercrime has accelarated the research on cybersecurity. However, the deployment of intrusion detection methods falls short. One of the reasons for this is the lack of realistic evaluation datasets, which makes it a challenge to develop techniques and compare them. This is caused by the large amounts of effort it takes for a cyber analyst to classify network connections. This has raised the need for methods (i) that can learn from small sets of labeled data, (ii) that can make predictions on large sets of unlabeled data, and (iii) that request the label of only specially selected unlabeled data instances. Hence, Active Learning (AL) methods are of interest. These approaches choose speci?fic unlabeled instances by a query function that are expected to improve overall classi?cation performance. The resulting query observations are labeled by a human expert and added to the labeled set. In this paper, we propose a new hybrid AL method called Jasmine. Firstly, it determines how suitable each observation is for querying, i.e., how likely it is to enhance classi?cation. These properties are the uncertainty score and anomaly score. Secondly, Jasmine introduces dynamic updating. This allows the model to adjust the balance between querying uncertain, anomalous and randomly selected observations. To this end, Jasmine is able to learn the best query strategy during the labeling process. This is in contrast to the other AL methods in cybersecurity that all have static, predetermined query functions. We show that dynamic updating, and therefore Jasmine, is able to consistently obtain good and more robust results than querying only uncertainties, only anomalies or a ?fixed combination of the two.

A machine learning approach to itinerary-level booking prediction in competitive airline markets

Demand forecasting is extremely important in revenue management. After all, it is one of the inputs to an optimisation method which aim is to maximize revenue. Most, if not all, forecasting methods use historical data to forecast the future, disregarding the "why". In this paper, we combine data from multiple sources, including competitor data, pricing, social media, safety and airline reviews. Next, we study five competitor pricing movements that, we hypothesize, affect customer behavior when presented a set of itineraries. Using real airline data for ten different OD-pairs and by means of Extreme Gradient Boosting, we show that customer behavior can be categorized into price-sensitive, schedule-sensitive and comfort ODs. Through a simulation study, we show that this model produces forecasts that result in higher revenue than traditional, time series forecasts.