Abstract:With the development of new sensors and monitoring devices, more sources of data become available to be used as inputs for machine learning models. These can on the one hand help to improve the accuracy of a model. On the other hand however, combining these new inputs with historical data remains a challenge that has not yet been studied in enough detail. In this work, we propose a transfer-learning algorithm that combines the new and the historical data, that is especially beneficial when the new data is scarce. We focus the approach on the linear regression case, which allows us to conduct a rigorous theoretical study on the benefits of the approach. We show that our approach is robust against negative transfer-learning, and we confirm this result empirically with real and simulated data.
Abstract:Within hospitality, marketing departments use segmentation to create tailored strategies to ensure personalized marketing. This study provides a data-driven approach by segmenting guest profiles via hierarchical clustering, based on an extensive set of features. The industry requires understandable outcomes that contribute to adaptability for marketing departments to make data-driven decisions and ultimately driving profit. A marketing department specified a business question that guides the unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Features of guests change over time; therefore, there is a probability that guests transition from one segment to another. The purpose of the study is to provide steps in the process from raw data to actionable insights, which serve as a guideline for how hospitality companies can adopt an algorithmic approach.
Abstract:Demand forecasting is extremely important in revenue management. After all, it is one of the inputs to an optimisation method which aim is to maximize revenue. Most, if not all, forecasting methods use historical data to forecast the future, disregarding the "why". In this paper, we combine data from multiple sources, including competitor data, pricing, social media, safety and airline reviews. Next, we study five competitor pricing movements that, we hypothesize, affect customer behavior when presented a set of itineraries. Using real airline data for ten different OD-pairs and by means of Extreme Gradient Boosting, we show that customer behavior can be categorized into price-sensitive, schedule-sensitive and comfort ODs. Through a simulation study, we show that this model produces forecasts that result in higher revenue than traditional, time series forecasts.