Generative Diffusion Model-based Downscaling of Observed Sea Surface Height over Kuroshio Extension since 2000

Satellite altimetry has been widely utilized to monitor global sea surface dynamics, enabling investigation of upper ocean variability from basin-scale to localized eddy ranges. However, the sparse spatial resolution of observational altimetry limits our understanding of oceanic submesoscale variability, prevalent at horizontal scales below 0.25o resolution. Here, we introduce a state-of-the-art generative diffusion model to train high-resolution sea surface height (SSH) reanalysis data and demonstrate its advantage in observational SSH downscaling over the eddy-rich Kuroshio Extension region. The diffusion-based model effectively downscales raw satellite-interpolated data from 0.25o resolution to 1/16o, corresponding to approximately 12-km wavelength. This model outperforms other high-resolution reanalysis datasets and neural network-based methods. Also, it successfully reproduces the spatial patterns and power spectra of satellite along-track observations. Our diffusion-based results indicate that eddy kinetic energy at horizontal scales less than 250 km has intensified significantly since 2004 in the Kuroshio Extension region. These findings underscore the great potential of deep learning in reconstructing satellite altimetry and enhancing our understanding of ocean dynamics at eddy scales.

Quantitative causality, causality-guided scientific discovery, and causal machine learning

It has been said, arguably, that causality analysis should pave a promising way to interpretable deep learning and generalization. Incorporation of causality into artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, however, is challenged with its vagueness, non-quantitiveness, computational inefficiency, etc. During the past 18 years, these challenges have been essentially resolved, with the establishment of a rigorous formalism of causality analysis initially motivated from atmospheric predictability. This not only opens a new field in the atmosphere-ocean science, namely, information flow, but also has led to scientific discoveries in other disciplines, such as quantum mechanics, neuroscience, financial economics, etc., through various applications. This note provides a brief review of the decade-long effort, including a list of major theoretical results, a sketch of the causal deep learning framework, and some representative real-world applications in geoscience pertaining to this journal, such as those on the anthropogenic cause of global warming, the decadal prediction of El Ni\~no Modoki, the forecasting of an extreme drought in China, among others.