Efficient Normalized Conformal Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Anti-Cancer Drug Sensitivity Prediction with Deep Regression Forests

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be increased if paired with uncertainty estimations. Conformal Prediction has emerged as a promising method to pair machine learning models with prediction intervals, allowing for a view of the model's uncertainty. However, popular uncertainty estimation methods for conformal prediction fail to provide heteroskedastic intervals that are equally accurate for all samples. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the uncertainty of each sample by calculating the variance obtained from a Deep Regression Forest. We show that the deep regression forest variance improves the efficiency and coverage of normalized inductive conformal prediction on a drug response prediction task.

Investigation of REFINED CNN ensemble learning for anti-cancer drug sensitivity prediction

Anti-cancer drug sensitivity prediction using deep learning models for individual cell line is a significant challenge in personalized medicine. REFINED (REpresentation of Features as Images with NEighborhood Dependencies) CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) based models have shown promising results in drug sensitivity prediction. The primary idea behind REFINED CNN is representing high dimensional vectors as compact images with spatial correlations that can benefit from convolutional neural network architectures. However, the mapping from a vector to a compact 2D image is not unique due to variations in considered distance measures and neighborhoods. In this article, we consider predictions based on ensembles built from such mappings that can improve upon the best single REFINED CNN model prediction. Results illustrated using NCI60 and NCIALMANAC databases shows that the ensemble approaches can provide significant performance improvement as compared to individual models. We further illustrate that a single mapping created from the amalgamation of the different mappings can provide performance similar to stacking ensemble but with significantly lower computational complexity.

REFINED (REpresentation of Features as Images with NEighborhood Dependencies): A novel feature representation for Convolutional Neural Networks

Deep learning with Convolutional Neural Networks has shown great promise in various areas of image-based classification and enhancement but is often unsuitable for predictive modeling involving non-image based features or features without spatial correlations. We present a novel approach for representation of high dimensional feature vector in a compact image form, termed REFINED (REpresentation of Features as Images with NEighborhood Dependencies), that is conducible for convolutional neural network based deep learning. We consider the correlations between features to generate a compact representation of the features in the form of a two-dimensional image using minimization of pairwise distances similar to multi-dimensional scaling. We hypothesize that this approach enables embedded feature selection and integrated with Convolutional Neural Network based Deep Learning can produce more accurate predictions as compared to Artificial Neural Networks, Random Forests and Support Vector Regression. We illustrate the superior predictive performance of the proposed representation, as compared to existing approaches, using synthetic datasets, cell line efficacy prediction based on drug chemical descriptors for NCI60 dataset and drug sensitivity prediction based on transcriptomic data and chemical descriptors using GDSC dataset. Results illustrated on both synthetic and biological datasets shows the higher prediction accuracy of the proposed framework as compared to existing methodologies while maintaining desirable properties in terms of bias and feature extraction.