Gradient descent inference in empirical risk minimization

Gradient descent is one of the most widely used iterative algorithms in modern statistical learning. However, its precise algorithmic dynamics in high-dimensional settings remain only partially understood, which has therefore limited its broader potential for statistical inference applications. This paper provides a precise, non-asymptotic distributional characterization of gradient descent iterates in a broad class of empirical risk minimization problems, in the so-called mean-field regime where the sample size is proportional to the signal dimension. Our non-asymptotic state evolution theory holds for both general non-convex loss functions and non-Gaussian data, and reveals the central role of two Onsager correction matrices that precisely characterize the non-trivial dependence among all gradient descent iterates in the mean-field regime. Although the Onsager correction matrices are typically analytically intractable, our state evolution theory facilitates a generic gradient descent inference algorithm that consistently estimates these matrices across a broad class of models. Leveraging this algorithm, we show that the state evolution can be inverted to construct (i) data-driven estimators for the generalization error of gradient descent iterates and (ii) debiased gradient descent iterates for inference of the unknown signal. Detailed applications to two canonical models--linear regression and (generalized) logistic regression--are worked out to illustrate model-specific features of our general theory and inference methods.

UCB algorithms for multi-armed bandits: Precise regret and adaptive inference

Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithms are a widely-used class of sequential algorithms for the $K$-armed bandit problem. Despite extensive research over the past decades aimed at understanding their asymptotic and (near) minimax optimality properties, a precise understanding of their regret behavior remains elusive. This gap has not only hindered the evaluation of their actual algorithmic efficiency, but also limited further developments in statistical inference in sequential data collection. This paper bridges these two fundamental aspects--precise regret analysis and adaptive statistical inference--through a deterministic characterization of the number of arm pulls for an UCB index algorithm [Lai87, Agr95, ACBF02]. Our resulting precise regret formula not only accurately captures the actual behavior of the UCB algorithm for finite time horizons and individual problem instances, but also provides significant new insights into the regimes in which the existing theory remains informative. In particular, we show that the classical Lai-Robbins regret formula is exact if and only if the sub-optimality gaps exceed the order $\sigma\sqrt{K\log T/T}$. We also show that its maximal regret deviates from the minimax regret by a logarithmic factor, and therefore settling its strict minimax optimality in the negative. The deterministic characterization of the number of arm pulls for the UCB algorithm also has major implications in adaptive statistical inference. Building on the seminal work of [Lai82], we show that the UCB algorithm satisfies certain stability properties that lead to quantitative central limit theorems in two settings including the empirical means of unknown rewards in the bandit setting. These results have an important practical implication: conventional confidence sets designed for i.i.d. data remain valid even when data are collected sequentially.

Relative Density and Exact Recovery in Heterogeneous Stochastic Block Models

The Stochastic Block Model (SBM) is a widely used random graph model for networks with communities. Despite the recent burst of interest in recovering communities in the SBM from statistical and computational points of view, there are still gaps in understanding the fundamental information theoretic and computational limits of recovery. In this paper, we consider the SBM in its full generality, where there is no restriction on the number and sizes of communities or how they grow with the number of nodes, as well as on the connection probabilities inside or across communities. This generality allows us to move past the artifacts of homogenous SBM, and understand the right parameters (such as the relative densities of communities) that define the various recovery thresholds. We outline the implications of our generalizations via a set of illustrative examples. For instance, $\log n$ is considered to be the standard lower bound on the cluster size for exact recovery via convex methods, for homogenous SBM. We show that it is possible, in the right circumstances (when sizes are spread and the smaller the cluster, the denser), to recover very small clusters (up to $\sqrt{\log n}$ size), if there are just a few of them (at most polylogarithmic in $n$).