Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regression

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables, existing multivariate methods either impose rigid geometric assumptions or rely on flexible but computationally expensive approaches that do not explicitly optimize prediction set volume. We propose an optimization-driven framework based on a novel loss function that directly learns minimum-volume covering sets while ensuring valid coverage. This formulation naturally induces a new nonconformity score for conformal prediction, which adapts to the residual distribution and covariates. Our approach optimizes over prediction sets defined by arbitrary norm balls, including single and multi-norm formulations. Additionally, by jointly optimizing both the predictive model and predictive uncertainty, we obtain prediction sets that are tight, informative, and computationally efficient, as demonstrated in our experiments on real-world datasets.

Learn to Bid as a Price-Maker Wind Power Producer

Wind power producers (WPPs) participating in short-term power markets face significant imbalance costs due to their non-dispatchable and variable production. While some WPPs have a large enough market share to influence prices with their bidding decisions, existing optimal bidding methods rarely account for this aspect. Price-maker approaches typically model bidding as a bilevel optimization problem, but these methods require complex market models, estimating other participants' actions, and are computationally demanding. To address these challenges, we propose an online learning algorithm that leverages contextual information to optimize WPP bids in the price-maker setting. We formulate the strategic bidding problem as a contextual multi-armed bandit, ensuring provable regret minimization. The algorithm's performance is evaluated against various benchmark strategies using a numerical simulation of the German day-ahead and real-time markets.

Conformal Prediction under Lévy-Prokhorov Distribution Shifts: Robustness to Local and Global Perturbations

Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees, yet its robustness under distribution shifts remains a significant challenge. This paper addresses this limitation by modeling distribution shifts using L\'evy-Prokhorov (LP) ambiguity sets, which capture both local and global perturbations. We provide a self-contained overview of LP ambiguity sets and their connections to popular metrics such as Wasserstein and Total Variation. We show that the link between conformal prediction and LP ambiguity sets is a natural one: by propagating the LP ambiguity set through the scoring function, we reduce complex high-dimensional distribution shifts to manageable one-dimensional distribution shifts, enabling exact quantification of worst-case quantiles and coverage. Building on this analysis, we construct robust conformal prediction intervals that remain valid under distribution shifts, explicitly linking LP parameters to interval width and confidence levels. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

New Perspectives on Regularization and Computation in Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization

We study optimal transport-based distributionally robust optimization problems where a fictitious adversary, often envisioned as nature, can choose the distribution of the uncertain problem parameters by reshaping a prescribed reference distribution at a finite transportation cost. In this framework, we show that robustification is intimately related to various forms of variation and Lipschitz regularization even if the transportation cost function fails to be (some power of) a metric. We also derive conditions for the existence and the computability of a Nash equilibrium between the decision-maker and nature, and we demonstrate numerically that nature's Nash strategy can be viewed as a distribution that is supported on remarkably deceptive adversarial samples. Finally, we identify practically relevant classes of optimal transport-based distributionally robust optimization problems that can be addressed with efficient gradient descent algorithms even if the loss function or the transportation cost function are nonconvex (but not both at the same time).

The Performance of Wasserstein Distributionally Robust M-Estimators in High Dimensions

Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization has recently emerged as a powerful framework for robust estimation, enjoying good out-of-sample performance guarantees, well-understood regularization effects, and computationally tractable dual reformulations. In such framework, the estimator is obtained by minimizing the worst-case expected loss over all probability distributions which are close, in a Wasserstein sense, to the empirical distribution. In this paper, we propose a Wasserstein distributionally robust M-estimation framework to estimate an unknown parameter from noisy linear measurements, and we focus on the important and challenging task of analyzing the squared error performance of such estimators. Our study is carried out in the modern high-dimensional proportional regime, where both the ambient dimension and the number of samples go to infinity, at a proportional rate which encodes the under/over-parametrization of the problem. Under an isotropic Gaussian features assumption, we show that the squared error can be recover as the solution of a convex-concave optimization problem which, surprinsingly, involves at most four scalar variables. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to study this problem in the context of Wasserstein distributionally robust M-estimation.