ThinkTank-ME: A Multi-Expert Framework for Middle East Event Forecasting

Event forecasting is inherently influenced by multifaceted considerations, including international relations, regional historical dynamics, and cultural contexts. However, existing LLM-based approaches employ single-model architectures that generate predictions along a singular explicit trajectory, constraining their ability to capture diverse geopolitical nuances across complex regional contexts. To address this limitation, we introduce ThinkTank-ME, a novel Think Tank framework for Middle East event forecasting that emulates collaborative expert analysis in real-world strategic decision-making. To facilitate expert specialization and rigorous evaluation, we construct POLECAT-FOR-ME, a Middle East-focused event forecasting benchmark. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of multi-expert collaboration in handling complex temporal geopolitical forecasting tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/LuminosityX/ThinkTank-ME.

Integrate Temporal Graph Learning into LLM-based Temporal Knowledge Graph Model

Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting (TKGF) aims to predict future events based on the observed events in history. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable capabilities, generating significant research interest in their application for reasoning over temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs). Existing LLM-based methods have integrated retrieved historical facts or static graph representations into LLMs. Despite the notable performance of LLM-based methods, they are limited by the insufficient modeling of temporal patterns and ineffective cross-modal alignment between graph and language, hindering the ability of LLMs to fully grasp the temporal and structural information in TKGs. To tackle these issues, we propose a novel framework TGL-LLM to integrate temporal graph learning into LLM-based temporal knowledge graph model. Specifically, we introduce temporal graph learning to capture the temporal and relational patterns and obtain the historical graph embedding. Furthermore, we design a hybrid graph tokenization to sufficiently model the temporal patterns within LLMs. To achieve better alignment between graph and language, we employ a two-stage training paradigm to finetune LLMs on high-quality and diverse data, thereby resulting in better performance. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets show that our approach outperforms a range of state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods.