Do Contemporary CATE Models Capture Real-World Heterogeneity? Findings from a Large-Scale Benchmark

We present unexpected findings from a large-scale benchmark study evaluating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation algorithms. By running 16 modern CATE models across 43,200 datasets, we find that: (a) 62\% of CATE estimates have a higher Mean Squared Error (MSE) than a trivial zero-effect predictor, rendering them ineffective; (b) in datasets with at least one useful CATE estimate, 80\% still have higher MSE than a constant-effect model; and (c) Orthogonality-based models outperform other models only 30\% of the time, despite widespread optimism about their performance. These findings expose significant limitations in current CATE models and suggest ample opportunities for further research. Our findings stem from a novel application of \textit{observational sampling}, originally developed to evaluate Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimates from observational methods with experiment data. To adapt observational sampling for CATE evaluation, we introduce a statistical parameter, $Q$, equal to MSE minus a constant and preserves the ranking of models by their MSE. We then derive a family of sample statistics, collectively called $\hat{Q}$, that can be computed from real-world data. We prove that $\hat{Q}$ is a consistent estimator of $Q$ under mild technical conditions. When used in observational sampling, $\hat{Q}$ is unbiased and asymptotically selects the model with the smallest MSE. To ensure the benchmark reflects real-world heterogeneity, we handpick datasets where outcomes come from field rather than simulation. By combining the new observational sampling method, new statistics, and real-world datasets, the benchmark provides a unique perspective on CATE estimator performance and uncover gaps in capturing real-world heterogeneity.

QDA-SQL: Questions Enhanced Dialogue Augmentation for Multi-Turn Text-to-SQL

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for specific domain tasks has achieved great success in Text-to-SQL tasks. However, these fine-tuned models often face challenges with multi-turn Text-to-SQL tasks caused by ambiguous or unanswerable questions. It is desired to enhance LLMs to handle multiple types of questions in multi-turn Text-to-SQL tasks. To address this, we propose a novel data augmentation method, called QDA-SQL, which generates multiple types of multi-turn Q\&A pairs by using LLMs. In QDA-SQL, we introduce a novel data augmentation method incorporating validation and correction mechanisms to handle complex multi-turn Text-to-SQL tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that QDA-SQL enables fine-tuned models to exhibit higher performance on SQL statement accuracy and enhances their ability to handle complex, unanswerable questions in multi-turn Text-to-SQL tasks. The generation script and test set are released at https://github.com/mcxiaoxiao/QDA-SQL.