Inferring the relationship between soil temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index with machine learning

Changes in climate can greatly affect the phenology of plants, which can have important feedback effects, such as altering the carbon cycle. These phenological feedback effects are often induced by a shift in the start or end dates of the growing season of plants. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) serves as a straightforward indicator for assessing the presence of green vegetation and can also provide an estimation of the plants' growing season. In this study, we investigated the effect of soil temperature on the timing of the start of the season (SOS), timing of the peak of the season (POS), and the maximum annual NDVI value (PEAK) in subarctic grassland ecosystems between 2014 and 2019. We also explored the impact of other meteorological variables, including air temperature, precipitation, and irradiance, on the inter-annual variation in vegetation phenology. Using machine learning (ML) techniques and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values, we analyzed the relative importance and contribution of each variable to the phenological predictions. Our results reveal a significant relationship between soil temperature and SOS and POS, indicating that higher soil temperatures lead to an earlier start and peak of the growing season. However, the Peak NDVI values showed just a slight increase with higher soil temperatures. The analysis of other meteorological variables demonstrated their impacts on the inter-annual variation of the vegetation phenology. Ultimately, this study contributes to our knowledge of the relationships between soil temperature, meteorological variables, and vegetation phenology, providing valuable insights for predicting vegetation phenology characteristics and managing subarctic grasslands in the face of climate change. Additionally, this work provides a solid foundation for future ML-based vegetation phenology studies.

Neural Additive Vector Autoregression Models for Causal Discovery in Time Series Data

Causal structure discovery in complex dynamical systems is an important challenge for many scientific domains. Although data from (interventional) experiments is usually limited, large amounts of observational time series data sets are usually available. Current methods that learn causal structure from time series often assume linear relationships. Hence, they may fail in realistic settings that contain nonlinear relations between the variables. We propose Neural Additive Vector Autoregression (NAVAR) models, a neural approach to causal structure learning that can discover nonlinear relationships. We train deep neural networks that extract the (additive) Granger causal influences from the time evolution in multi-variate time series. The method achieves state-of-the-art results on various benchmark data sets for causal discovery, while providing clear interpretations of the mapped causal relations.

Towards Empathic Deep Q-Learning

As reinforcement learning (RL) scales to solve increasingly complex tasks, interest continues to grow in the fields of AI safety and machine ethics. As a contribution to these fields, this paper introduces an extension to Deep Q-Networks (DQNs), called Empathic DQN, that is loosely inspired both by empathy and the golden rule ("Do unto others as you would have them do unto you"). Empathic DQN aims to help mitigate negative side effects to other agents resulting from myopic goal-directed behavior. We assume a setting where a learning agent coexists with other independent agents (who receive unknown rewards), where some types of reward (e.g. negative rewards from physical harm) may generalize across agents. Empathic DQN combines the typical (self-centered) value with the estimated value of other agents, by imagining (by its own standards) the value of it being in the other's situation (by considering constructed states where both agents are swapped). Proof-of-concept results in two gridworld environments highlight the approach's potential to decrease collateral harms. While extending Empathic DQN to complex environments is non-trivial, we believe that this first step highlights the potential of bridge-work between machine ethics and RL to contribute useful priors for norm-abiding RL agents.