A Data Balancing and Ensemble Learning Approach for Credit Card Fraud Detection

This research introduces an innovative method for identifying credit card fraud by combining the SMOTE-KMEANS technique with an ensemble machine learning model. The proposed model was benchmarked against traditional models such as logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, and support vector machines. Performance was evaluated using metrics, including accuracy, recall, and area under the curve (AUC). The results demonstrated that the proposed model achieved superior performance, with an AUC of 0.96 when combined with the SMOTE-KMEANS algorithm. This indicates a significant improvement in detecting fraudulent transactions while maintaining high precision and recall. The study also explores the application of different oversampling techniques to enhance the performance of various classifiers. The findings suggest that the proposed method is robust and effective for classification tasks on balanced datasets. Future research directions include further optimization of the SMOTE-KMEANS approach and its integration into existing fraud detection systems to enhance financial security and consumer protection.

MCTS-RAG: Enhancing Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Monte Carlo Tree Search

We introduce MCTS-RAG, a novel approach that enhances the reasoning capabilities of small language models on knowledge-intensive tasks by leveraging retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to provide relevant context and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to refine reasoning paths. MCTS-RAG dynamically integrates retrieval and reasoning through an iterative decision-making process. Unlike standard RAG methods, which typically retrieve information independently from reasoning and thus integrate knowledge suboptimally, or conventional MCTS reasoning, which depends solely on internal model knowledge without external facts, MCTS-RAG combines structured reasoning with adaptive retrieval. This integrated approach enhances decision-making, reduces hallucinations, and ensures improved factual accuracy and response consistency. The experimental results on multiple reasoning and knowledge-intensive datasets datasets (i.e., ComplexWebQA, GPQA, and FoolMeTwice) show that our method enables small-scale LMs to achieve performance comparable to frontier LLMs like GPT-4o by effectively scaling inference-time compute, setting a new standard for reasoning in small-scale models.

Leveraging VAE-Derived Latent Spaces for Enhanced Malware Detection with Machine Learning Classifiers

This paper assesses the performance of five machine learning classifiers: Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, LightGBM, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest using latent representations learned by a Variational Autoencoder from malware datasets. Results from the experiments conducted on different training-test splits with different random seeds reveal that all the models perform well in detecting malware with ensemble methods (LightGBM and Random Forest) performing slightly better than the rest. In addition, the use of latent features reduces the computational cost of the model and the need for extensive hyperparameter tuning for improved efficiency of the model for deployment. Statistical tests show that these improvements are significant, and thus, the practical relevance of integrating latent space representation with traditional classifiers for effective malware detection in cybersecurity is established.

Feature selection strategies for optimized heart disease diagnosis using ML and DL models

Heart disease remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide, necessitating the development of effective diagnostic tools to enable early diagnosis and clinical decision-making. This study evaluates the impact of feature selection techniques Mutual Information (MI), Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and Chi-Square on the predictive performance of various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models using a dataset of clinical indicators for heart disease. Eleven ML/DL models were assessed using metrics such as precision, recall, AUC score, F1-score, and accuracy. Results indicate that MI outperformed other methods, particularly for advanced models like neural networks, achieving the highest accuracy of 82.3% and recall score of 0.94. Logistic regression (accuracy 82.1%) and random forest (accuracy 80.99%) also demonstrated improved performance with MI. Simpler models such as Naive Bayes and decision trees achieved comparable results with ANOVA and Chi-Square, yielding accuracies of 76.45% and 75.99%, respectively, making them computationally efficient alternatives. Conversely, k Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) exhibited lower performance, with accuracies ranging between 51.52% and 54.43%, regardless of the feature selection method. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of feature selection methods for heart disease prediction, demonstrating the critical role of feature selection in optimizing model performance. The results offer practical guidance for selecting appropriate feature selection techniques based on the chosen classification algorithm, contributing to the development of more accurate and efficient diagnostic tools for enhanced clinical decision-making in cardiology.

ML-Based Bidding Price Prediction for Pay-As-Bid Ancillary Services Markets: A Use Case in the German Control Reserve Market

The increasing integration of renewable energy sources has led to greater volatility and unpredictability in electricity generation, posing challenges to grid stability. Ancillary service markets, such as the German control reserve market, allow industrial consumers and producers to offer flexibility in their power consumption or generation, contributing to grid stability while earning additional income. However, many participants use simple bidding strategies that may not maximize their revenues. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting bidding prices in pay-as-bid ancillary service markets, focusing on the German control reserve market. We evaluate various machine learning models, including Support Vector Regression, Decision Trees, and k-Nearest Neighbors, and compare their performance against benchmark models. To address the asymmetry in the revenue function of pay-as-bid markets, we introduce an offset adjustment technique that enhances the practical applicability of the forecasting models. Our analysis demonstrates that the proposed approach improves potential revenues by 27.43 % to 37.31 % compared to baseline models. When analyzing the relationship between the model forecasting errors and the revenue, a negative correlation is measured for three markets; according to the results, a reduction of 1 EUR/MW model price forecasting error (MAE) statistically leads to a yearly revenue increase between 483 EUR/MW and 3,631 EUR/MW. The proposed methodology enables industrial participants to optimize their bidding strategies, leading to increased earnings and contributing to the efficiency and stability of the electrical grid.

Automation and Feature Selection Enhancement with Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Effective feature selection, representation and transformation are principal steps in machine learning to improve prediction accuracy, model generalization and computational efficiency. Reinforcement learning provides a new perspective towards balanced exploration of optimal feature subset using multi-agent and single-agent models. Interactive reinforcement learning integrated with decision tree improves feature knowledge, state representation and selection efficiency, while diversified teaching strategies improve both selection quality and efficiency. The state representation can further be enhanced by scanning features sequentially along with the usage of convolutional auto-encoder. Monte Carlo-based reinforced feature selection(MCRFS), a single-agent feature selection method reduces computational burden by incorporating early-stopping and reward-level interactive strategies. A dual-agent RL framework is also introduced that collectively selects features and instances, capturing the interactions between them. This enables the agents to navigate through complex data spaces. To outperform the traditional feature engineering, cascading reinforced agents are used to iteratively improve the feature space, which is a self-optimizing framework. The blend of reinforcement learning, multi-agent systems, and bandit-based approaches offers exciting paths for studying scalable and interpretable machine learning solutions to handle high-dimensional data and challenging predictive tasks.

Food Delivery Time Prediction in Indian Cities Using Machine Learning Models

Accurate prediction of food delivery times significantly impacts customer satisfaction, operational efficiency, and profitability in food delivery services. However, existing studies primarily utilize static historical data and often overlook dynamic, real-time contextual factors crucial for precise prediction, particularly in densely populated Indian cities. This research addresses these gaps by integrating real-time contextual variables such as traffic density, weather conditions, local events, and geospatial data (restaurant and delivery location coordinates) into predictive models. We systematically compare various machine learning algorithms, including Linear Regression, Decision Trees, Bagging, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, on a comprehensive food delivery dataset specific to Indian urban contexts. Rigorous data preprocessing and feature selection significantly enhanced model performance. Experimental results demonstrate that the LightGBM model achieves superior predictive accuracy, with an R2 score of 0.76 and Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 20.59, outperforming traditional baseline approaches. Our study thus provides actionable insights for improving logistics strategies in complex urban environments. The complete methodology and code are publicly available for reproducibility and further research.

DARS: Dynamic Action Re-Sampling to Enhance Coding Agent Performance by Adaptive Tree Traversal

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized various domains, including natural language processing, data analysis, and software development, by enabling automation. In software engineering, LLM-powered coding agents have garnered significant attention due to their potential to automate complex development tasks, assist in debugging, and enhance productivity. However, existing approaches often struggle with sub-optimal decision-making, requiring either extensive manual intervention or inefficient compute scaling strategies. To improve coding agent performance, we present Dynamic Action Re-Sampling (DARS), a novel inference time compute scaling approach for coding agents, that is faster and more effective at recovering from sub-optimal decisions compared to baselines. While traditional agents either follow linear trajectories or rely on random sampling for scaling compute, our approach DARS works by branching out a trajectory at certain key decision points by taking an alternative action given the history of the trajectory and execution feedback of the previous attempt from that point. We evaluate our approach on SWE-Bench Lite benchmark, demonstrating that this scaling strategy achieves a pass@k score of 55% with Claude 3.5 Sonnet V2. Our framework achieves a pass@1 rate of 47%, outperforming state-of-the-art (SOTA) open-source frameworks.

Clustered random forests with correlated data for optimal estimation and inference under potential covariate shift

We develop Clustered Random Forests, a random forests algorithm for clustered data, arising from independent groups that exhibit within-cluster dependence. The leaf-wise predictions for each decision tree making up clustered random forests takes the form of a weighted least squares estimator, which leverage correlations between observations for improved prediction accuracy. Clustered random forests are shown for certain tree splitting criteria to be minimax rate optimal for pointwise conditional mean estimation, while being computationally competitive with standard random forests. Further, we observe that the optimality of a clustered random forest, with regards to how (population level) optimal weights are chosen within this framework i.e. those that minimise mean squared prediction error, vary under covariate distribution shift. In light of this, we advocate weight estimation to be determined by a user-chosen covariate distribution with respect to which optimal prediction or inference is desired. This highlights a key difference in behaviour, between correlated and independent data, with regards to nonparametric conditional mean estimation under covariate shift. We demonstrate our theoretical findings numerically in a number of simulated and real-world settings.

Applications of Large Language Model Reasoning in Feature Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized natural language processing through their state of art reasoning capabilities. This paper explores the convergence of LLM reasoning techniques and feature generation for machine learning tasks. We examine four key reasoning approaches: Chain of Thought, Tree of Thoughts, Retrieval-Augmented Generation, and Thought Space Exploration. Our analysis reveals how these approaches can be used to identify effective feature generation rules without having to manually specify search spaces. The paper categorizes LLM-based feature generation methods across various domains including finance, healthcare, and text analytics. LLMs can extract key information from clinical notes and radiology reports in healthcare, by enabling more efficient data utilization. In finance, LLMs facilitate text generation, summarization, and entity extraction from complex documents. We analyze evaluation methodologies for assessing feature quality and downstream performance, with particular attention to OCTree's decision tree reasoning approach that provides language-based feedback for iterative improvements. Current challenges include hallucination, computational efficiency, and domain adaptation. As of March 2025, emerging approaches include inference-time compute scaling, reinforcement learning, and supervised fine-tuning with model distillation. Future directions point toward multimodal feature generation, self-improving systems, and neuro-symbolic approaches. This paper provides a detailed overview of an emerging field that promises to automate and enhance feature engineering through language model reasoning.