sTransformer: A Modular Approach for Extracting Inter-Sequential and Temporal Information for Time-Series Forecasting

In recent years, numerous Transformer-based models have been applied to long-term time-series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. However, recent studies with linear models have questioned their effectiveness, demonstrating that simple linear layers can outperform sophisticated Transformer-based models. In this work, we review and categorize existing Transformer-based models into two main types: (1) modifications to the model structure and (2) modifications to the input data. The former offers scalability but falls short in capturing inter-sequential information, while the latter preprocesses time-series data but is challenging to use as a scalable module. We propose $\textbf{sTransformer}$, which introduces the Sequence and Temporal Convolutional Network (STCN) to fully capture both sequential and temporal information. Additionally, we introduce a Sequence-guided Mask Attention mechanism to capture global feature information. Our approach ensures the capture of inter-sequential information while maintaining module scalability. We compare our model with linear models and existing forecasting models on long-term time-series forecasting, achieving new state-of-the-art results. We also conducted experiments on other time-series tasks, achieving strong performance. These demonstrate that Transformer-based structures remain effective and our model can serve as a viable baseline for time-series tasks.

Improving Accuracy Without Losing Interpretability: A ML Approach for Time Series Forecasting

In time series forecasting, decomposition-based algorithms break aggregate data into meaningful components and are therefore appreciated for their particular advantages in interpretability. Recent algorithms often combine machine learning (hereafter ML) methodology with decomposition to improve prediction accuracy. However, incorporating ML is generally considered to sacrifice interpretability inevitably. In addition, existing hybrid algorithms usually rely on theoretical models with statistical assumptions and focus only on the accuracy of aggregate predictions, and thus suffer from accuracy problems, especially in component estimates. In response to the above issues, this research explores the possibility of improving accuracy without losing interpretability in time series forecasting. We first quantitatively define interpretability for data-driven forecasts and systematically review the existing forecasting algorithms from the perspective of interpretability. Accordingly, we propose the W-R algorithm, a hybrid algorithm that combines decomposition and ML from a novel perspective. Specifically, the W-R algorithm replaces the standard additive combination function with a weighted variant and uses ML to modify the estimates of all components simultaneously. We mathematically analyze the theoretical basis of the algorithm and validate its performance through extensive numerical experiments. In general, the W-R algorithm outperforms all decomposition-based and ML benchmarks. Based on P50_QL, the algorithm relatively improves by 8.76% in accuracy on the practical sales forecasts of JD.com and 77.99% on a public dataset of electricity loads. This research offers an innovative perspective to combine the statistical and ML algorithms, and JD.com has implemented the W-R algorithm to make accurate sales predictions and guide its marketing activities.