Towards Long-Range ENSO Prediction with an Explainable Deep Learning Model

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term prediction. In this study, we introduce CTEFNet, a multivariate deep learning model that synergizes convolutional neural networks and transformers to enhance ENSO forecasting. By integrating multiple oceanic and atmospheric predictors, CTEFNet extends the effective forecast lead time to 20 months while mitigating the impact of the spring predictability barrier, outperforming both dynamical models and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. Furthermore, CTEFNet offers physically meaningful and statistically significant insights through gradient-based sensitivity analysis, revealing the key precursor signals that govern ENSO dynamics, which align with well-established theories and reveal new insights about inter-basin interactions among the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. The CTEFNet's superior predictive skill and interpretable sensitivity assessments underscore its potential for advancing climate prediction. Our findings highlight the importance of multivariate coupling in ENSO evolution and demonstrate the promise of deep learning in capturing complex climate dynamics with enhanced interpretability.

Automatically Planning Optimal Parallel Strategy for Large Language Models

The number of parameters in large-scale language models based on transformers is gradually increasing, and the scale of computing clusters is also growing. The technology of quickly mobilizing large amounts of computing resources for parallel computing is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, we propose an automatic parallel algorithm that automatically plans the parallel strategy with maximum throughput based on model and hardware information. By decoupling the training time into computation, communication, and overlap, we established a training duration simulation model. Based on this simulation model, we prune the parallel solution space to shorten the search time required. The multi-node experiment results show that the algorithm can estimate the parallel training duration in real time with an average accuracy of 96%. In our test, the recommendation strategy provided by the algorithm is always globally optimal.