Learning Augmentation Policies from A Model Zoo for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting models typically rely on a fixed-size training set and treat all data uniformly, which may not effectively capture the specific patterns present in more challenging training samples. To address this issue, we introduce AutoTSAug, a learnable data augmentation method based on reinforcement learning. Our approach begins with an empirical analysis to determine which parts of the training data should be augmented. Specifically, we identify the so-called marginal samples by considering the prediction diversity across a set of pretrained forecasting models. Next, we propose using variational masked autoencoders as the augmentation model and applying the REINFORCE algorithm to transform the marginal samples into new data. The goal of this generative model is not only to mimic the distribution of real data but also to reduce the variance of prediction errors across the model zoo. By augmenting the marginal samples with a learnable policy, AutoTSAug substantially improves forecasting performance, advancing the prior art in this field with minimal additional computational cost.

Characterized Diffusion and Spatial-Temporal Interaction Network for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving

Trajectory prediction is a cornerstone in autonomous driving (AD), playing a critical role in enabling vehicles to navigate safely and efficiently in dynamic environments. To address this task, this paper presents a novel trajectory prediction model tailored for accuracy in the face of heterogeneous and uncertain traffic scenarios. At the heart of this model lies the Characterized Diffusion Module, an innovative module designed to simulate traffic scenarios with inherent uncertainty. This module enriches the predictive process by infusing it with detailed semantic information, thereby enhancing trajectory prediction accuracy. Complementing this, our Spatio-Temporal (ST) Interaction Module captures the nuanced effects of traffic scenarios on vehicle dynamics across both spatial and temporal dimensions with remarkable effectiveness. Demonstrated through exhaustive evaluations, our model sets a new standard in trajectory prediction, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets across both short and extended temporal spans. This performance underscores the model's unparalleled adaptability and efficacy in navigating complex traffic scenarios, including highways, urban streets, and intersections.