Demystifying Prediction Powered Inference

Machine learning predictions are increasingly used to supplement incomplete or costly-to-measure outcomes in fields such as biomedical research, environmental science, and social science. However, treating predictions as ground truth introduces bias while ignoring them wastes valuable information. Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) offers a principled framework that leverages predictions from large unlabeled datasets to improve statistical efficiency while maintaining valid inference through explicit bias correction using a smaller labeled subset. Despite its potential, the growing PPI variants and the subtle distinctions between them have made it challenging for practitioners to determine when and how to apply these methods responsibly. This paper demystifies PPI by synthesizing its theoretical foundations, methodological extensions, connections to existing statistics literature, and diagnostic tools into a unified practical workflow. Using the Mosaiks housing price data, we show that PPI variants produce tighter confidence intervals than complete-case analysis, but that double-dipping, i.e. reusing training data for inference, leads to anti-conservative confidence intervals and coverages. Under missing-not-at-random mechanisms, all methods, including classical inference using only labeled data, yield biased estimates. We provide a decision flowchart linking assumption violations to appropriate PPI variants, a summary table of selective methods, and practical diagnostic strategies for evaluating core assumptions. By framing PPI as a general recipe rather than a single estimator, this work bridges methodological innovation and applied practice, helping researchers responsibly integrate predictions into valid inference.

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks to Predict Mutual Coupling Effects in Metasurfaces

Metasurfaces have provided a novel and promising platform for the realization of compact and large-scale optical devices. The conventional metasurface design approach assumes periodic boundary conditions for each element, which is inaccurate in most cases since the near-field coupling effects between elements will change when surrounded by non-identical structures. In this paper, we propose a deep learning approach to predict the actual electromagnetic (EM) responses of each target meta-atom placed in a large array with near-field coupling effects taken into account. The predicting neural network takes the physical specifications of the target meta-atom and its neighbors as input, and calculates its phase and amplitude in milliseconds. This approach can be applied to explain metasurfaces' performance deterioration caused by mutual coupling and further used to optimize their efficiencies once combined with optimization algorithms. To demonstrate the efficacy of this methodology, we obtain large improvements in efficiency for a beam deflector and a metalens over the conventional design approach. Moreover, we show the correlations between a metasurface's performance and its design errors caused by mutual coupling are not bound to certain specifications (materials, shapes, etc.). As such, we envision that this approach can be readily applied to explore the mutual coupling effects and improve the performance of various metasurface designs.

A Freeform Dielectric Metasurface Modeling Approach Based on Deep Neural Networks

Metasurfaces have shown promising potentials in shaping optical wavefronts while remaining compact compared to bulky geometric optics devices. Design of meta-atoms, the fundamental building blocks of metasurfaces, relies on trial-and-error method to achieve target electromagnetic responses. This process includes the characterization of an enormous amount of different meta-atom designs with different physical and geometric parameters, which normally demands huge computational resources. In this paper, a deep learning-based metasurface/meta-atom modeling approach is introduced to significantly reduce the characterization time while maintaining accuracy. Based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) structure, the proposed deep learning network is able to model meta-atoms with free-form 2D patterns and different lattice sizes, material refractive indexes and thicknesses. Moreover, the presented approach features the capability to predict meta-atoms' wide spectrum responses in the timescale of milliseconds, which makes it attractive for applications such as fast meta-atom/metasurface on-demand designs and optimizations.

Generative Multi-Functional Meta-Atom and Metasurface Design Networks

Metasurfaces are being widely investigated and adopted for their promising performances in manipulating optical wavefronts and their potential for integrating multi-functionalities into one flat optical device. A key challenge in metasurface design is the non-intuitive design process that produces models and patterns from specific design requirements (commonly electromagnetic responses). A complete exploration of all design spaces can produce optimal designs but is unrealistic considering the massive amount of computation power required to explore large parameter spaces. Meanwhile, machine learning techniques, especially generative adversarial networks, have proven to be an effective solution to non-intuitive design tasks. In this paper, we present a novel conditional generative network that can generate meta-atom/metasurface designs based on different performance requirements. Compared to conventional trial-and-error or iterative optimization design methods, this new methodology is capable of producing on-demand freeform designs on a one-time calculation basis. More importantly, an increased complexity of design goals doesn't introduce further complexity into the network structure or the training process, which makes this approach suitable for multi-functional device designs. Compared to previous deep learning-based metasurface approaches, our network structure is extremely robust to train and converge, and is readily expanded to many multi-functional metasurface devices, including metasurface filters, lenses and holograms.

A Novel Modeling Approach for All-Dielectric Metasurfaces Using Deep Neural Networks

Metasurfaces have become a promising means for manipulating optical wavefronts in flat and high-performance optical devices. Conventional metasurface device design relies on trial-and-error methods to obtain target electromagnetic (EM) response, an approach that demands significant efforts to investigate the enormous number of possible meta-atom structures. In this paper, a deep neural network approach is introduced that significantly improves on both speed and accuracy compared to techniques currently used to assemble metasurface-based devices. Our neural network approach overcomes three key challenges that have limited previous neural-network-based design schemes: input/output vector dimensional mismatch, accurate EM-wave phase prediction, as well as adaptation to 3-D dielectric structures, and can be generically applied to a wide variety of metasurface device designs across the entire electromagnetic spectrum. Using this new methodology, examples of neural networks capable of producing on-demand designs for meta-atoms, metasurface filters, and phase-change reconfigurable metasurfaces are demonstrated.