EnTransformer: A Deep Generative Transformer for Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in multivariate time series forecasting problems arising in domains such as energy systems and transportation networks, among many others. Although Transformer-based architectures have recently achieved strong performance for sequence modeling, most probabilistic forecasting approaches rely on restrictive parametric likelihoods or quantile-based objectives. They can struggle to capture complex joint predictive distributions across multiple correlated time series. This work proposes EnTransformer, a deep generative forecasting framework that integrates engression, a stochastic learning paradigm for modeling conditional distributions, with the expressive sequence modeling capabilities of Transformers. The proposed approach injects stochastic noise into the model representation and optimizes an energy-based scoring objective to directly learn the conditional predictive distribution without imposing parametric assumptions. This design enables EnTransformer to generate coherent multivariate forecast trajectories while preserving Transformers' capacity to effectively model long-range temporal dependencies and cross-series interactions. We evaluate our proposed EnTransformer on several widely used benchmarks for multivariate probabilistic forecasting, including Electricity, Traffic, Solar, Taxi, KDD-cup, and Wikipedia datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that EnTransformer produces well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts and consistently outperforms the benchmark models.

A Penalized Shared-parameter Algorithm for Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimens

A dynamic treatment regimen (DTR) is a set of decision rules to personalize treatments for an individual using their medical history. The Q-learning based Q-shared algorithm has been used to develop DTRs that involve decision rules shared across multiple stages of intervention. We show that the existing Q-shared algorithm can suffer from non-convergence due to the use of linear models in the Q-learning setup, and identify the condition in which Q-shared fails. Leveraging properties from expansion-constrained ordinary least-squares, we give a penalized Q-shared algorithm that not only converges in settings that violate the condition, but can outperform the original Q-shared algorithm even when the condition is satisfied. We give evidence for the proposed method in a real-world application and several synthetic simulations.

Knee Osteoarthritis Severity Prediction using an Attentive Multi-Scale Deep Convolutional Neural Network

Knee Osteoarthritis (OA) is a destructive joint disease identified by joint stiffness, pain, and functional disability concerning millions of lives across the globe. It is generally assessed by evaluating physical symptoms, medical history, and other joint screening tests like radiographs, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), and Computed Tomography (CT) scans. Unfortunately, the conventional methods are very subjective, which forms a barrier in detecting the disease progression at an early stage. This paper presents a deep learning-based framework, namely OsteoHRNet, that automatically assesses the Knee OA severity in terms of Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) grade classification from X-rays. As a primary novelty, the proposed approach is built upon one of the most recent deep models, called the High-Resolution Network (HRNet), to capture the multi-scale features of knee X-rays. In addition, we have also incorporated an attention mechanism to filter out the counterproductive features and boost the performance further. Our proposed model has achieved the best multiclass accuracy of 71.74% and MAE of 0.311 on the baseline cohort of the OAI dataset, which is a remarkable gain over the existing best-published works. We have also employed the Gradient-based Class Activation Maps (Grad-CAMs) visualization to justify the proposed network learning.