Uncertainty-Aware Multimodal Learning via Conformal Shapley Intervals

Multimodal learning combines information from multiple data modalities to improve predictive performance. However, modalities often contribute unequally and in a data dependent way, making it unclear which data modalities are genuinely informative and to what extent their contributions can be trusted. Quantifying modality level importance together with uncertainty is therefore central to interpretable and reliable multimodal learning. We introduce conformal Shapley intervals, a framework that combines Shapley values with conformal inference to construct uncertainty-aware importance intervals for each modality. Building on these intervals, we propose a modality selection procedure with a provable optimality guarantee: conditional on the observed features, the selected subset of modalities achieves performance close to that of the optimal subset. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on multiple datasets, showing that it provides meaningful uncertainty quantification and strong predictive performance while relying on only a small number of informative modalities.

Dynamic Modality Scheduling for Multimodal Large Models via Confidence, Uncertainty, and Semantic Consistency

Multimodal Large Models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in vision-language understanding and generation tasks. However, existing MLLMs typically rely on static modality fusion strategies, which treat all modalities equally regardless of their instance-level reliability or semantic contribution. This often leads to suboptimal performance, especially in scenarios with noisy, missing, or misaligned modalities. In this paper, we propose Dynamic Modality Scheduling (DMS), a novel framework that adaptively adjusts the contribution of each modality at a per-sample level. DMS evaluates each modality based on three key factors: (1) \textit{confidence}, estimated from predictive entropy; (2) \textit{uncertainty}, obtained via Monte Carlo dropout; and (3) \textit{semantic consistency}, computed through inter-modal similarity. These signals are combined through a learnable or rule-based scheduler to generate soft modality weights used in downstream fusion.To ensure stable training, we further introduce a \textit{Modality Weight Consistency Loss}, which regularizes the fused representation to stay close to unimodal embeddings proportionally to their assigned weights. Our method is model-agnostic and can be integrated into existing MLLMs such as BLIP-2 and LLaVA. Experimental results on VQA, image-text retrieval, and captioning tasks show that DMS significantly improves both clean and robust performance, especially under modality corruption or dropout conditions. This work provides a general and effective mechanism to enable instance-aware and robustness-enhanced multimodal modeling.

Four Years in Review: Statistical Practices of Likert Scales in Human-Robot Interaction Studies

As robots become more prevalent, the importance of the field of human-robot interaction (HRI) grows accordingly. As such, we should endeavor to employ the best statistical practices. Likert scales are commonly used metrics in HRI to measure perceptions and attitudes. Due to misinformation or honest mistakes, most HRI researchers do not adopt best practices when analyzing Likert data. We conduct a review of psychometric literature to determine the current standard for Likert scale design and analysis. Next, we conduct a survey of four years of the International Conference on Human-Robot Interaction (2016 through 2019) and report on incorrect statistical practices and design of Likert scales. During these years, only 3 of the 110 papers applied proper statistical testing to correctly-designed Likert scales. Our analysis suggests there are areas for meaningful improvement in the design and testing of Likert scales. Lastly, we provide recommendations to improve the accuracy of conclusions drawn from Likert data.

Regression with Uncertainty Quantification in Large Scale Complex Data

While several methods for predicting uncertainty on deep networks have been recently proposed, they do not readily translate to large and complex datasets. In this paper we utilize a simplified form of the Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) to produce a one-shot approach to quantify uncertainty in regression problems. We show that our uncertainty bounds are on-par or better than other reported existing methods. When applied to standard regression benchmark datasets, we show an improvement in predictive log-likelihood and root-mean-square-error when compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. We also demonstrate this method's efficacy on stochastic, highly volatile time-series data where stock prices are predicted for the next time interval. The resulting uncertainty graph summarizes significant anomalies in the stock price chart. Furthermore, we apply this method to the task of age estimation from the challenging IMDb-Wiki dataset of half a million face images. We successfully predict the uncertainties associated with the prediction and empirically analyze the underlying causes of the uncertainties. This uncertainty quantification can be used to pre-process low quality datasets and further enable learning.

Detecting Heterogeneous Treatment Effect with Instrumental Variables

There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work, we present a method to estimate heterogeneous causal effects using an instrumental variable approach. The method has two parts. The first part uses subject-matter knowledge and interpretable machine learning techniques, such as classification and regression trees, to discover potential effect modifiers. The second part uses closed testing to test for the statistical significance of the effect modifiers while strongly controlling familywise error rate. We conducted this method on the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, estimating the effect of Medicaid on the number of days an individual's health does not impede their usual activities, and found evidence of heterogeneity in older men who prefer English and don't self-identify as Asian and younger individuals who have at most a high school diploma or GED and prefer English.

Lenses and Learners

Lenses are a well-established structure for modelling bidirectional transformations, such as the interactions between a database and a view of it. Lenses may be symmetric or asymmetric, and may be composed, forming the morphisms of a monoidal category. More recently, the notion of a learner has been proposed: these provide a compositional way of modelling supervised learning algorithms, and again form the morphisms of a monoidal category. In this paper, we show that the two concepts are tightly linked. We show both that there is a faithful, identity-on-objects symmetric monoidal functor embedding a category of asymmetric lenses into the category of learners, and furthermore there is such a functor embedding the category of learners into a category of symmetric lenses.