Chimera: Accurate retrosynthesis prediction by ensembling models with diverse inductive biases

Planning and conducting chemical syntheses remains a major bottleneck in the discovery of functional small molecules, and prevents fully leveraging generative AI for molecular inverse design. While early work has shown that ML-based retrosynthesis models can predict reasonable routes, their low accuracy for less frequent, yet important reactions has been pointed out. As multi-step search algorithms are limited to reactions suggested by the underlying model, the applicability of those tools is inherently constrained by the accuracy of retrosynthesis prediction. Inspired by how chemists use different strategies to ideate reactions, we propose Chimera: a framework for building highly accurate reaction models that combine predictions from diverse sources with complementary inductive biases using a learning-based ensembling strategy. We instantiate the framework with two newly developed models, which already by themselves achieve state of the art in their categories. Through experiments across several orders of magnitude in data scale and time-splits, we show Chimera outperforms all major models by a large margin, owing both to the good individual performance of its constituents, but also to the scalability of our ensembling strategy. Moreover, we find that PhD-level organic chemists prefer predictions from Chimera over baselines in terms of quality. Finally, we transfer the largest-scale checkpoint to an internal dataset from a major pharmaceutical company, showing robust generalization under distribution shift. With the new dimension that our framework unlocks, we anticipate further acceleration in the development of even more accurate models.

Are VAEs Bad at Reconstructing Molecular Graphs?

Many contemporary generative models of molecules are variational auto-encoders of molecular graphs. One term in their training loss pertains to reconstructing the input, yet reconstruction capabilities of state-of-the-art models have not yet been thoroughly compared on a large and chemically diverse dataset. In this work, we show that when several state-of-the-art generative models are evaluated under the same conditions, their reconstruction accuracy is surprisingly low, worse than what was previously reported on seemingly harder datasets. However, we show that improving reconstruction does not directly lead to better sampling or optimization performance. Failed reconstructions from the MoLeR model are usually similar to the inputs, assembling the same motifs in a different way, and possess similar chemical properties such as solubility. Finally, we show that the input molecule and its failed reconstruction are usually mapped by the different encoders to statistically distinguishable posterior distributions, hinting that posterior collapse may not fully explain why VAEs are bad at reconstructing molecular graphs.