Chimera: Accurate retrosynthesis prediction by ensembling models with diverse inductive biases

Planning and conducting chemical syntheses remains a major bottleneck in the discovery of functional small molecules, and prevents fully leveraging generative AI for molecular inverse design. While early work has shown that ML-based retrosynthesis models can predict reasonable routes, their low accuracy for less frequent, yet important reactions has been pointed out. As multi-step search algorithms are limited to reactions suggested by the underlying model, the applicability of those tools is inherently constrained by the accuracy of retrosynthesis prediction. Inspired by how chemists use different strategies to ideate reactions, we propose Chimera: a framework for building highly accurate reaction models that combine predictions from diverse sources with complementary inductive biases using a learning-based ensembling strategy. We instantiate the framework with two newly developed models, which already by themselves achieve state of the art in their categories. Through experiments across several orders of magnitude in data scale and time-splits, we show Chimera outperforms all major models by a large margin, owing both to the good individual performance of its constituents, but also to the scalability of our ensembling strategy. Moreover, we find that PhD-level organic chemists prefer predictions from Chimera over baselines in terms of quality. Finally, we transfer the largest-scale checkpoint to an internal dataset from a major pharmaceutical company, showing robust generalization under distribution shift. With the new dimension that our framework unlocks, we anticipate further acceleration in the development of even more accurate models.

A path algorithm for the Fused Lasso Signal Approximator

The Lasso is a very well known penalized regression model, which adds an $L_{1}$ penalty with parameter $\lambda_{1}$ on the coefficients to the squared error loss function. The Fused Lasso extends this model by also putting an $L_{1}$ penalty with parameter $\lambda_{2}$ on the difference of neighboring coefficients, assuming there is a natural ordering. In this paper, we develop a fast path algorithm for solving the Fused Lasso Signal Approximator that computes the solutions for all values of $\lambda_1$ and $\lambda_2$. In the supplement, we also give an algorithm for the general Fused Lasso for the case with predictor matrix $\bX \in \mathds{R}^{n \times p}$ with $\text{rank}(\bX)=p$.