Orthogonal Learner for Estimating Heterogeneous Long-Term Treatment Effects

Estimation of heterogeneous long-term treatment effects (HLTEs) is widely used for personalized decision-making in marketing, economics, and medicine, where short-term randomized experiments are often combined with long-term observational data. However, HLTE estimation is challenging due to limited overlap in treatment or in observing long-term outcomes for certain subpopulations, which can lead to unstable HLTE estimates with large finite-sample variance. To address this challenge, we introduce the LT-O-learners (Long-Term Orthogonal Learners), a set of novel orthogonal learners for HLTE estimation. The learners are designed for the canonical HLTE setting that combines a short-term randomized dataset $\mathcal{D}_1$ with a long-term historical dataset $\mathcal{D}_2$. The key idea of our LT-O-Learners is to retarget the learning objective by introducing custom overlap weights that downweight samples with low overlap in treatment or in long-term observation. We show that the retargeted loss is equivalent to the weighted oracle loss and satisfies Neyman-orthogonality, which means our learners are robust to errors in the nuisance estimation. We further provide a general error bound for the LT-O-Learners and give the conditions under which quasi-oracle rate can be achieved. Finally, our LT-O-learners are model-agnostic and can thus be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. We conduct empirical evaluations on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks to confirm the theoretical properties of our LT-O-Learners, especially the robustness in low-overlap settings. To the best of our knowledge, ours are the first orthogonal learners for HLTE estimation that are robust to low overlap that is common in long-term outcomes.

DeepBlip: Estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects Over Time

Structural nested mean models (SNMMs) are a principled approach to estimate the treatment effects over time. A particular strength of SNMMs is to break the joint effect of treatment sequences over time into localized, time-specific ``blip effects''. This decomposition promotes interpretability through the incremental effects and enables the efficient offline evaluation of optimal treatment policies without re-computation. However, neural frameworks for SNMMs are lacking, as their inherently sequential g-estimation scheme prevents end-to-end, gradient-based training. Here, we propose DeepBlip, the first neural framework for SNMMs, which overcomes this limitation with a novel double optimization trick to enable simultaneous learning of all blip functions. Our DeepBlip seamlessly integrates sequential neural networks like LSTMs or transformers to capture complex temporal dependencies. By design, our method correctly adjusts for time-varying confounding to produce unbiased estimates, and its Neyman-orthogonal loss function ensures robustness to nuisance model misspecification. Finally, we evaluate our DeepBlip across various clinical datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Genetic Meta-Structure Search for Recommendation on Heterogeneous Information Network

In the past decade, the heterogeneous information network (HIN) has become an important methodology for modern recommender systems. To fully leverage its power, manually designed network templates, i.e., meta-structures, are introduced to filter out semantic-aware information. The hand-crafted meta-structure rely on intense expert knowledge, which is both laborious and data-dependent. On the other hand, the number of meta-structures grows exponentially with its size and the number of node types, which prohibits brute-force search. To address these challenges, we propose Genetic Meta-Structure Search (GEMS) to automatically optimize meta-structure designs for recommendation on HINs. Specifically, GEMS adopts a parallel genetic algorithm to search meaningful meta-structures for recommendation, and designs dedicated rules and a meta-structure predictor to efficiently explore the search space. Finally, we propose an attention based multi-view graph convolutional network module to dynamically fuse information from different meta-structures. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets suggest the effectiveness of GEMS, which consistently outperforms all baseline methods in HIN recommendation. Compared with simplified GEMS which utilizes hand-crafted meta-paths, GEMS achieves over $6\%$ performance gain on most evaluation metrics. More importantly, we conduct an in-depth analysis on the identified meta-structures, which sheds light on the HIN based recommender system design.

IFoodCloud: A Platform for Real-time Sentiment Analysis of Public Opinion about Food Safety in China

The Internet contains a wealth of public opinion on food safety, including views on food adulteration, food-borne diseases, agricultural pollution, irregular food distribution, and food production issues. In order to systematically collect and analyse public opinion on food safety, we developed IFoodCloud, a platform for the real-time sentiment analysis of public opinion on food safety in China. It collects data from more than 3,100 public sources that can be used to explore public opinion trends, public sentiment, and regional attention differences of food safety incidents. At the same time, we constructed a sentiment classification model using multiple lexicon-based and deep learning-based algorithms integrated with IFoodCloud that provide an unprecedented rapid means of understanding the public sentiment toward specific food safety incidents. Our best model's F1-score achieved 0.9737. Further, three real-world cases are presented to demonstrate the application and robustness. IFoodCloud could be considered a valuable tool for promote scientisation of food safety supervision and risk communication.