Probabilistic Deep Learning to Quantify Uncertainty in Air Quality Forecasting

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to trust the forecasts. Recently, several practical tools to estimate uncertainty have been developed in probabilistic deep learning. However, there have not been empirical applications and extensive comparisons of these tools in the domain of air quality forecasts. Therefore, this work applies state-of-the-art techniques of uncertainty quantification in a real-world setting of air quality forecasts. Through extensive experiments, we describe training probabilistic models and evaluate their predictive uncertainties based on empirical performance, reliability of confidence estimate, and practical applicability. We also propose improving these models using "free" adversarial training and exploiting temporal and spatial correlation inherent in air quality data. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed models perform better than previous works in quantifying uncertainty in data-driven air quality forecasts. Overall, Bayesian neural networks provide a more reliable uncertainty estimate but can be challenging to implement and scale. Other scalable methods, such as deep ensemble, Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, and stochastic weight averaging-Gaussian (SWAG), can perform well if applied correctly but with different tradeoffs and slight variations in performance metrics. Finally, our results show the practical impact of uncertainty estimation and demonstrate that, indeed, probabilistic models are more suitable for making informed decisions. Code and dataset are available at \url{https://github.com/Abdulmajid-Murad/deep_probabilistic_forecast}

Learning Task Agnostic Skills with Data-driven Guidance

To increase autonomy in reinforcement learning, agents need to learn useful behaviours without reliance on manually designed reward functions. To that end, skill discovery methods have been used to learn the intrinsic options available to an agent using task-agnostic objectives. However, without the guidance of task-specific rewards, emergent behaviours are generally useless due to the under-constrained problem of skill discovery in complex and high-dimensional spaces. This paper proposes a framework for guiding the skill discovery towards the subset of expert-visited states using a learned state projection. We apply our method in various reinforcement learning (RL) tasks and show that such a projection results in more useful behaviours.

Information-Driven Adaptive Sensing Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning

In order to make better use of deep reinforcement learning in the creation of sensing policies for resource-constrained IoT devices, we present and study a novel reward function based on the Fisher information value. This reward function enables IoT sensor devices to learn to spend available energy on measurements at otherwise unpredictable moments, while conserving energy at times when measurements would provide little new information. This is a highly general approach, which allows for a wide range of use cases without significant human design effort or hyper-parameter tuning. We illustrate the approach in a scenario of workplace noise monitoring, where results show that the learned behavior outperforms a uniform sampling strategy and comes close to a near-optimal oracle solution.

Autonomous Management of Energy-Harvesting IoT Nodes Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) is capable of managing wireless, energy-harvesting IoT nodes by solving the problem of autonomous management in non-stationary, resource-constrained settings. We show that the state-of-the-art policy-gradient approaches to RL are appropriate for the IoT domain and that they outperform previous approaches. Due to the ability to model continuous observation and action spaces, as well as improved function approximation capability, the new approaches are able to solve harder problems, permitting reward functions that are better aligned with the actual application goals. We show such a reward function and use policy-gradient approaches to learn capable policies, leading to behavior more appropriate for IoT nodes with less manual design effort, increasing the level of autonomy in IoT.