Towards Global Remote Discharge Estimation: Using the Few to Estimate The Many

Learning hydrologic models for accurate riverine flood prediction at scale is a challenge of great importance. One of the key difficulties is the need to rely on in-situ river discharge measurements, which can be quite scarce and unreliable, particularly in regions where floods cause the most damage every year. Accordingly, in this work we tackle the problem of river discharge estimation at different river locations. A core characteristic of the data at hand (e.g. satellite measurements) is that we have few measurements for many locations, all sharing the same physics that underlie the water discharge. We capture this scenario in a simple but powerful common mechanism regression (CMR) model with a local component as well as a shared one which captures the global discharge mechanism. The resulting learning objective is non-convex, but we show that we can find its global optimum by leveraging the power of joining local measurements across sites. In particular, using a spectral initialization with provable near-optimal accuracy, we can find the optimum using standard descent methods. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach for the problem of discharge estimation using simulations.