Adaptive Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization for Capacity Planning of Hybrid Heat Sources in Electric-Heat Coupling Systems of Cold Regions

The traditional heat-load generation pattern of combined heat and power generators has become a problem leading to renewable energy source (RES) power curtailment in cold regions, motivating the proposal of a planning model for alternative heat sources. The model aims to identify non-dominant capacity allocation schemes for heat pumps, thermal energy storage, electric boilers, and combined storage heaters to construct a Pareto front, considering both economic and sustainable objectives. The integration of various heat sources from both generation and consumption sides enhances flexibility in utilization. The study introduces a novel optimization algorithm, the adaptive multi-objective Bayesian optimization (AMBO). Compared to other widely used multi-objective optimization algorithms, AMBO eliminates predefined parameters that may introduce subjectivity from planners. Beyond the algorithm, the proposed model incorporates a noise term to account for inevitable simulation deviations, enabling the identification of better-performing planning results that meet the unique requirements of cold regions. What's more, the characteristics of electric-thermal coupling scenarios are captured and reflected in the operation simulation model to make sure the simulation is close to reality. Numerical simulation verifies the superiority of the proposed approach in generating a more diverse and evenly distributed Pareto front in a sample-efficient manner, providing comprehensive and objective planning choices.

Noise-Aware Bayesian Optimization Approach for Capacity Planning of the Distributed Energy Resources in an Active Distribution Network

The growing penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in active distribution networks (ADNs) leads to complex and uncertain operation scenarios, resulting in significant deviations and risks for the ADN operation. In this study, a collaborative capacity planning of the distributed energy resources in an ADN is proposed to enhance the RES accommodation capability. The variability of RESs, characteristics of adjustable demand response resources, ADN bi-directional power flow, and security operation limitations are considered in the proposed model. To address the noise term caused by the inevitable deviation between the operation simulation and real-world environments, an improved noise-aware Bayesian optimization algorithm with the probabilistic surrogate model is proposed to overcome the interference from the environmental noise and sample-efficiently optimize the capacity planning model under noisy circumstances. Numerical simulation results verify the superiority of the proposed approach in coping with environmental noise and achieving lower annual cost and higher computation efficiency.

A Stochastic Online Forecast-and-Optimize Framework for Real-Time Energy Dispatch in Virtual Power Plants under Uncertainty

Aggregating distributed energy resources in power systems significantly increases uncertainties, in particular caused by the fluctuation of renewable energy generation. This issue has driven the necessity of widely exploiting advanced predictive control techniques under uncertainty to ensure long-term economics and decarbonization. In this paper, we propose a real-time uncertainty-aware energy dispatch framework, which is composed of two key elements: (i) A hybrid forecast-and-optimize sequential task, integrating deep learning-based forecasting and stochastic optimization, where these two stages are connected by the uncertainty estimation at multiple temporal resolutions; (ii) An efficient online data augmentation scheme, jointly involving model pre-training and online fine-tuning stages. In this way, the proposed framework is capable to rapidly adapt to the real-time data distribution, as well as to target on uncertainties caused by data drift, model discrepancy and environment perturbations in the control process, and finally to realize an optimal and robust dispatch solution. The proposed framework won the championship in CityLearn Challenge 2022, which provided an influential opportunity to investigate the potential of AI application in the energy domain. In addition, comprehensive experiments are conducted to interpret its effectiveness in the real-life scenario of smart building energy management.