Counterfactual Uncertainty Quantification of Factual Estimand of Efficacy from Before-and-After Treatment Repeated Measures Randomized Controlled Trials

The ideal estimand for comparing a new treatment $Rx$ with a control $C$ is the $\textit{counterfactual}$ efficacy $Rx:C$, the expected differential outcome between $Rx$ and $C$ if each patient were given $\textit{both}$. While counterfactual $\textit{point estimation}$ from $\textit{factual}$ Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) has been available, this article shows $\textit{counterfactual}$ uncertainty quantification (CUQ), quantifying uncertainty for factual point estimates but in a counterfactual setting, is surprisingly achievable. We achieve CUQ whose variability is typically smaller than factual UQ, by creating a new statistical modeling principle called ETZ which is applicable to RCTs with $\textit{Before-and-After}$ treatment Repeated Measures, common in many therapeutic areas. We urge caution when estimate of the unobservable true condition of a patient before treatment has measurement error, because that violation of standard regression assumption can cause attenuation in estimating treatment effects. Fortunately, we prove that, for traditional medicine in general, and for targeted therapy with efficacy defined as averaged over the population, counterfactual point estimation is unbiased. However, for targeted therapy, both Real Human and Digital Twins approaches should respect this limitation, lest predicted treatment effect in $\textit{subgroups}$ will have bias.

Efficient End-to-End Detection of 6-DoF Grasps for Robotic Bin Picking

Bin picking is an important building block for many robotic systems, in logistics, production or in household use-cases. In recent years, machine learning methods for the prediction of 6-DoF grasps on diverse and unknown objects have shown promising progress. However, existing approaches only consider a single ground truth grasp orientation at a grasp location during training and therefore can only predict limited grasp orientations which leads to a reduced number of feasible grasps in bin picking with restricted reachability. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for learning dense and diverse 6-DoF grasps for parallel-jaw grippers in robotic bin picking. We introduce a parameterized grasp distribution model based on Power-Spherical distributions that enables a training based on all possible ground truth samples. Thereby, we also consider the grasp uncertainty enhancing the model's robustness to noisy inputs. As a result, given a single top-down view depth image, our model can generate diverse grasps with multiple collision-free grasp orientations. Experimental evaluations in simulation and on a real robotic bin picking setup demonstrate the model's ability to generalize across various object categories achieving an object clearing rate of around $90 \%$ in simulation and real-world experiments. We also outperform state of the art approaches. Moreover, the proposed approach exhibits its usability in real robot experiments without any refinement steps, even when only trained on a synthetic dataset, due to the probabilistic grasp distribution modeling.