Gradual Domain Adaptation via Manifold-Constrained Distributionally Robust Optimization

The aim of this paper is to address the challenge of gradual domain adaptation within a class of manifold-constrained data distributions. In particular, we consider a sequence of $T\ge2$ data distributions $P_1,\ldots,P_T$ undergoing a gradual shift, where each pair of consecutive measures $P_i,P_{i+1}$ are close to each other in Wasserstein distance. We have a supervised dataset of size $n$ sampled from $P_0$, while for the subsequent distributions in the sequence, only unlabeled i.i.d. samples are available. Moreover, we assume that all distributions exhibit a known favorable attribute, such as (but not limited to) having intra-class soft/hard margins. In this context, we propose a methodology rooted in Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with an adaptive Wasserstein radius. We theoretically show that this method guarantees the classification error across all $P_i$s can be suitably bounded. Our bounds rely on a newly introduced {\it {compatibility}} measure, which fully characterizes the error propagation dynamics along the sequence. Specifically, for inadequately constrained distributions, the error can exponentially escalate as we progress through the gradual shifts. Conversely, for appropriately constrained distributions, the error can be demonstrated to be linear or even entirely eradicated. We have substantiated our theoretical findings through several experimental results.

Counterfactual Effect Decomposition in Multi-Agent Sequential Decision Making

We address the challenge of explaining counterfactual outcomes in multi-agent Markov decision processes. In particular, we aim to explain the total counterfactual effect of an agent's action on the outcome of a realized scenario through its influence on the environment dynamics and the agents' behavior. To achieve this, we introduce a novel causal explanation formula that decomposes the counterfactual effect by attributing to each agent and state variable a score reflecting their respective contributions to the effect. First, we show that the total counterfactual effect of an agent's action can be decomposed into two components: one measuring the effect that propagates through all subsequent agents' actions and another related to the effect that propagates through the state transitions. Building on recent advancements in causal contribution analysis, we further decompose these two effects as follows. For the former, we consider agent-specific effects -- a causal concept that quantifies the counterfactual effect of an agent's action that propagates through a subset of agents. Based on this notion, we use Shapley value to attribute the effect to individual agents. For the latter, we consider the concept of structure-preserving interventions and attribute the effect to state variables based on their "intrinsic" contributions. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate the interpretability of our decomposition approach in a Gridworld environment with LLM-assisted agents and a sepsis management simulator.