Crime Forecasting: A Spatio-temporal Analysis with Deep Learning Models

This study uses deep-learning models to predict city partition crime counts on specific days. It helps police enhance surveillance, gather intelligence, and proactively prevent crimes. We formulate crime count prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence challenge, where both input data and prediction targets are spatiotemporal sequences. In order to improve the accuracy of crime forecasting, we introduce a new model that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. We conducted a comparative analysis to access the effects of various data sequences, including raw and binned data, on the prediction errors of four deep learning forecasting models. Directly inputting raw crime data into the forecasting model causes high prediction errors, making the model unsuitable for real - world use. The findings indicate that the proposed CNN-LSTM model achieves optimal performance when crime data is categorized into 10 or 5 groups. Data binning can enhance forecasting model performance, but poorly defined intervals may reduce map granularity. Compared to dividing into 5 bins, binning into 10 intervals strikes an optimal balance, preserving data characteristics and surpassing raw data in predictive modelling efficacy.

Cross-domain Open-world Discovery

In many real-world applications, test data may commonly exhibit categorical shifts, characterized by the emergence of novel classes, as well as distribution shifts arising from feature distributions different from the ones the model was trained on. However, existing methods either discover novel classes in the open-world setting or assume domain shifts without the ability to discover novel classes. In this work, we consider a cross-domain open-world discovery setting, where the goal is to assign samples to seen classes and discover unseen classes under a domain shift. To address this challenging problem, we present CROW, a prototype-based approach that introduces a cluster-then-match strategy enabled by a well-structured representation space of foundation models. In this way, CROW discovers novel classes by robustly matching clusters with previously seen classes, followed by fine-tuning the representation space using an objective designed for cross-domain open-world discovery. Extensive experimental results on image classification benchmark datasets demonstrate that CROW outperforms alternative baselines, achieving an 8% average performance improvement across 75 experimental settings.